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A Periodic Autoregressive Model of Indian WPI Inflation

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  • Sujata Kar

    (The author is Assistant Professor, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, India. Address for correspondence is Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Roorkee 247667, Uttarakhand, India; e-mail: sujata.kar@gmail.com)

Abstract

A growing literature in the field of econometrics is on the treatment of seasonal variables. However, so far, very few studies in India have applied advanced seasonal modelling techniques to important macroeconomic variables. This paper examines the seasonal properties of Indian monthly WPI inflation and their usefulness in modelling the series more efficiently. Monthly WPI inflation was found to be a periodic process with 18 lags and periodic integration of order two. A comparison between the performances of a PAR (18) and an AR (18) model showed that the former performed substantially better in terms of R 2 , AIC, in-sample predictive ability and residual properties. However, the out-of-sample forecasts from the PAR model were only reasonable. The best forecasts obtained for a horizon of 22 months, however, had good ‘direction of change’ predictions. The model could also produce interval forecasts of modest accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujata Kar, 2010. "A Periodic Autoregressive Model of Indian WPI Inflation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(3), pages 279-292, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:4:y:2010:i:3:p:279-292
    DOI: 10.1177/097380101000400302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Periodic Autoregressive Model; Periodic Integration; Out-of-Sample Forecasts; Inflation; JEL Classification: C53; JEL Classification: E31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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