IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/mareco/v12y2018i2p113-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Will Happen to the US Textile and Apparel Industry if the NAFTA Goes?

Author

Listed:
  • Sheng Lu

    (Sheng Lu is at the Department of Fashion and Apparel Studies, University of Delaware, US, email: shenglu@udel.edu)

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative evaluation of how the termination of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) proposed by the Trump administration will affect the US textile and apparel (T&A) industry. By adopting the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model based on the GTAP9 database, the study finds that: first, the termination of NAFTA will significantly reduce US apparel imports from NAFTA members but lead to an increase of US apparel imports from Asian countries; second, ending NAFTA will substantially reduce US textile exports to the NAFTA region, which currently is the single largest export market for the US textile industry; and third, rather than encouraging more ‘Made in the USA’, the termination of NAFTA will reduce further the output of T&A manufacturing in the United States. The findings of this study augment our understanding of the potential economic impact of ending a major free trade agreement, which has been studied little, and shed new lights on the debate regarding the T&A-specific sectoral impact of NAFTA. The findings of the study also provide valuable inputs for policymakers regarding what should or should not be done with NAFTA from the perspective of the US T&A industry. JEL Classification: F14, F15, F17

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng Lu, 2018. "What Will Happen to the US Textile and Apparel Industry if the NAFTA Goes?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 113-137, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:12:y:2018:i:2:p:113-137
    DOI: 10.1177/0973801018754624
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0973801018754624
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0973801018754624?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Roland-Holst, David & Reinert, Kenneth A. & Shiells, Clinton R., 1994. "NAFTA liberalization and the role of nontariff barriers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 137-168.
    3. Gereffi, Gary, 2000. "The transformation of the North American apparel industry: is NAFTA a curse or a blessing?," Desarrollo Productivo 4459, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Mostafa Malki & Henry Thompson & Osei-Agyeman Yeboah, 2009. "A Specific Factor Model of FTAA and North Carolina Textile and Apparel Industries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 227-236.
    5. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 219-237, January.
    7. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2005. "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 332, April.
    8. Gladys Lopez-Acevedo & Raymond Robertson, 2016. "Stitches to Riches?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23961.
    9. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates In The Gtap Data Base," Technical Papers 28721, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Ernesto Lopez-Cordova & Alejandro Micco & Danielken Molina, 2008. "How Sensitive Are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 117-153, January.
    11. Gladys Lopez Acevedo & Raymond Robertson, 2016. "Stitches to Riches? Apparel Employment, Trade, and Economic Development in South Asia," Working Papers id:10650, eSocialSciences.
    12. Hertel,Thomas W. (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643740, January.
    13. Charles WYPLOSZ, 2006. "Deep Economic Integration: Is Europe a Blueprint?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 259-279, December.
    14. Gladys Lopez-Acevedo & Raymond Robertson, 2012. "Sewing Success? Employment, Wages, and Poverty following the End of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13137.
    15. Ghosh, Madanmohan & Rao, Someshwar, 2005. "A Canada-U.S. customs union: Potential economic impacts in NAFTA countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 805-827, October.
    16. Stacey Frederick & Gary Gereffi, 2011. "Upgrading and restructuring in the global apparel value chain: why China and Asia are outperforming Mexico and Central America," International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2/3), pages 67-95.
    17. Badri Narayanan & Sachin Kumar Sharma, 2016. "An Analysis of Tariff Reductions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Implications for the Indian Economy," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, February.
    18. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
    19. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    20. Jada M. Thompson & Amanda M. Leister, 2015. "Potential Impacts of an Exclusionary Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement on Agriculture in the US and Japan," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 362-378, November.
    21. Patrick Georges, 2010. "Dispensing with NAFTA Rules of Origin? Some Policy Options," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1606-1637, November.
    22. Adams, Philip D., 2005. "Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 941-959, November.
    23. Amy Glasmeier & James M. Campbell & June M. Henton, 1993. "Tequila Sunset? NAFTA and the U.S. Apparel Industry," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 37-45, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balie, Jean & Strutt, Anna & Nelgen, Signe & Narayanan, 2018. "Infrastructure investments for improved market access in subSaharan Africa: A CGE analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.
    2. Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Boysen, Ole & Matthews, Alan & Brockmeier, Martina, 2018. "EU Common Agricultural Policy Post-2020: Exploring the Effects of Safety-Net Policy Instruments," Conference papers 332991, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Revisiting the effects of NAFTA," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Jabbar Ul-Haq & Hubert Visas & Seyedrohollah Ahmadi & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2020. "Female Earnings in the Apparel Industry Post-MFA: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    5. Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren, 2016. "Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 728-741, October.
    6. Leopoldo Gómez‐Ramírez & María Padilla‐Romo, 2022. "Some benefit, some are left behind: NAFTA and educational attainment in the United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1581-1606, October.
    7. Flaig, Dorothee & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten, 2019. "EU Agricultural Domestic Support in Global Value Chains or Where Does the Money Go?," Conference papers 333054, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    9. Carluccio, Juan & Gautier, Erwan & Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2023. "Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Laborde, David & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Implications of the 2008 Doha Draft Agricultural and NAMA Market Access Modalities for Developing Countries," Conference papers 331719, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Ernesto Valenzuela & Kym Anderson & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2009. "Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model," World Bank Publications - Reports 28155, The World Bank Group.
    12. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl & Yu, Wusheng, 2002. "Integration of the International Rice Market: Implications for Trade Liberalization," Conference papers 330992, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    14. Horridge, Mark & Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza, 2003. "Linking GTAP to National Models: Some Highlights and a Practical Approach," Conference papers 331115, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Knobel, Alexander & Chokaev, Bekhan, 2014. "Possible Economic Outcomes of a Trade Agreement with the European Union," EconStor Preprints 121853, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Dussel Peters, Enrique & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2013. "NAFTA's uninvited guest: China and the disintegration of North American trade," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    17. Peter Walkenhorst & Tadashi Yasui, 2004. "Quantitative Assessment of the Benefits of Trade Facilitation," International Trade 0401008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Nong, Duy & Nguyen, Duong Binh & Nguyen, Trung H. & Wang, Can & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2020. "A stronger energy strategy for a new era of economic development in Vietnam: A quantitative assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Soo Yuen Chong & Jung Hur, 2007. "Overlapping Free Trade Agreements of Singapore-USA-Japan : A Computational Analysis," Trade Working Papers 21931, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    20. Gehlhar, Mark & Wainio, John, 2004. "Feasibility of Reducing Agricultural Protection: Implications for Farm Households," Conference papers 331293, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAFTA; Trade Policy; Textile and Apparel; Western-Hemisphere Supply Chain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:12:y:2018:i:2:p:113-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ncaer.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.