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The geo-temporal evolution of violence in civil conflicts: A micro analysis of conflict diffusion on a new event data set

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  • Arzu Kibris

    (Department of Politics and International Studies, 2707University of Warwick)

Abstract

Existing works on diffusion fail to account for the incapacitating effects conflict events may have on the operational capability of the combatant sides and how these effects may determine the evolution of a conflict. I hypothesize that it is those events with losses on the state side that are likely to be associated with geo-temporal spillovers, whereas events with insurgency losses are less likely to be associated with future mayhem in their vicinity. To test my arguments, I first introduce a new, comprehensive and detailed event dataset on the long-running civil conflict in Turkey. The Turkish State–PKK Conflict Event Database (TPCONED) includes the exact date and county-level location for the fatal events of the armed conflict between the Turkish state and the rebel organization PKK since its very beginning in 1984 with detailed information on combatant casualties. I then employ a split population bi-probit model which allows me to comprehensively depict the geotemporal evolution of the conflict by acknowledging, estimating and accounting for the variation in the underlying conflict proneness across locations as a latent variable that shapes the diffusion of events. The results of the statistical analyses offer support for my hypotheses and reveal that how events evolve over space and time is conditioned by the damages suffered by the combatant sides. I demonstrate the robustness of these results on a matched sample I obtain by employing the Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) on the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Arzu Kibris, 2021. "The geo-temporal evolution of violence in civil conflicts: A micro analysis of conflict diffusion on a new event data set," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 885-899, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:58:y:2021:i:5:p:885-899
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343320978695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emine Arı & Reşat Bayer & Özge Kemahlıoğlu & Ece Kural, 2024. "Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: The role of local politics and governments," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(2), pages 263-278, March.
    2. Beber, Bernd, 2021. "Do peacekeepers contain conflict? Insights from spatially disaggregated data," Ruhr Economic Papers 931, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Kibris, Arzu & Goodwin, Robin, 2024. "The long-term effects of war exposure on psychological health: An experimental study with Turkish conscript veterans," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    4. Arzu Kibris & Lena Gerling, 2022. "Armed conflict exposure and trust: Evidence from a natural experiment in Turkey," HiCN Working Papers 363, Households in Conflict Network.

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