IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jothpo/v35y2023i3p232-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Indirect rule and mass threat: Two paths to direct rule

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Broman

Abstract

What is the impact of popular discontent on the transition from indirect to direct rule? The current literature suggests contrasting theories, variously arguing that rulers are more likely to govern directly when facing either a particularly high or particularly low probability of mass resistance. I reconcile these views by arguing that the decision to rule indirectly is subject to competing dilemmas. In a formal model, I show that these twin tensions influence the choice to centralize power in opposing manners. Accordingly, there are two distinct political logics driving direct rule: one resulting from a high likelihood of revolt and the other from a low likelihood, with contrasting comparative statics. The model therefore reconciles contrasting views in the literature. I illustrate the model's logic with reference to key cases and provide heuristics for predicting comparative statics in new empirical settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Broman, 2023. "Indirect rule and mass threat: Two paths to direct rule," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 35(3), pages 232-256, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:35:y:2023:i:3:p:232-256
    DOI: 10.1177/09516298231183640
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09516298231183640
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09516298231183640?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2020. "Historical Legacies and African Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 53-128, March.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Formal and Real Authority in Organizations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-29, February.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 938-963, September.
    4. Gailmard, Sean, 2019. "Imperial Politics, English Law, and the Strategic Foundations of Constitutional Review in America," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 778-795, August.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar, 2020. "The political agenda effect and state centralization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 749-778.
    6. repec:ner:ucllon:http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/17678/ is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Blaydes, Lisa & Linzer, Drew A., 2012. "Elite Competition, Religiosity, and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 225-243, May.
    8. Gerard Padró I Miquel & Pierre Yared, 2012. "The Political Economy of Indirect Control," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 947-1015.
    9. Garfias, Francisco, 2018. "Elite Competition and State Capacity Development: Theory and Evidence from Post-Revolutionary Mexico," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 339-357, May.
    10. Eric Chaney, 2013. "Revolt on the Nile: Economic Shocks, Religion, and Political Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 2033-2053, September.
    11. Benjamin Broman, 2022. "Social elites, popular discontent, and the limits of cooptation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 281-299, March.
    12. Pierskalla, Jan & De Juan, Alexander & Montgomery, Max, 2019. "The Territorial Expansion of the Colonial State: Evidence from German East Africa 1890–1909," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 711-737, April.
    13. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:03:p:778-795_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Letsa, Natalie Wenzell & Wilfahrt, Martha, 2020. "The Mechanisms of Direct and Indirect Rule: Colonialism and Economic Development in Africa," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 15(4), pages 539-577, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2019. "Stability of revolutionary governments in the face of mass protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Roland Hodler, 2018. "The Political Economics Of The Arab Spring," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 821-836, April.
    3. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Hector Galindo‐Silva, 2020. "External threats, political turnover, and fiscal capacity," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 430-462, November.
    5. Ambrus, Attila & Egorov, Georgy, 2017. "Delegation and nonmonetary incentives," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 101-135.
    6. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 295-326, January.
    7. Maria Waldinger, 2023. "“Let Them Eat Cake”: Drought, Peasant Uprisings, and Demand for Institutional Change in the French Revolution," CESifo Working Paper Series 10303, CESifo.
    8. Chen, Shuo & Fan, Xinyu & Colin Xu, L. & Yan, Xun, 2023. "Competence-loyalty tradeoff under dominant minority rule: The case of Manchu rule, 1650-1911," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. T. Randolph Beard & Richard Alan Seals Jr. & Michael L. Stern, 2014. "Security and Government Credibility," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    10. Merima Ali & Odd-Helge Fjeldstad & Boqian Jiang & Abdulaziz B Shifa, 2019. "Colonial Legacy, State-building and the Salience of Ethnicity in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1048-1081.
    11. Bournakis, Ioannis & Rizov, Marian & Christopoulos, Dimitris, 2023. "Revisiting the effect of institutions on the economic performance of SSA countries: Do legal origins matter in the context of ethnic heterogeneity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Pablo Balán & Augustin Bergeron & Gabriel Tourek & Jonathan L. Weigel, 2022. "Local Elites as State Capacity: How City Chiefs Use Local Information to Increase Tax Compliance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(3), pages 762-797, March.
    13. Kainuma, Shuhei, 2024. "Transition to broader-based politics: The role of suffrage extension in early 20th century Japan," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Uwe Dulleck & Paul Frijters, 2004. "Why the US and not Brazil? Old Elites and the Development of a Modern Economy," Vienna Economics Papers 0408, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    15. Bournakis, Ioannis & Rizov, Marian & Christopoulos, Dimitris, 2021. "Revisiting the Economic Performance and Institutions Debate in SSA Countries: The Role of Legal Origins in the Context of Ethnic Heterogeneity," MPRA Paper 106557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Maria Waldinger, 2024. "“Let them eat cake”: drought, peasant uprisings, and demand for institutional change in the French Revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 41-77, March.
    17. Haikun Zhu, 2018. "Social Stability and Resource Allocation within Business Groups," Working Papers Series 79, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    18. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    19. Peter-J. Jost, 2023. "Auditing versus monitoring and the role of commitment," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 463-496, June.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Claire Lelarge & John Van Reenen & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2007. "Technology, Information, and the Decentralization of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1759-1799.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:35:y:2023:i:3:p:232-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.