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East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?

Author

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  • Andrey Korotayev

    (International Laboratory for Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia)

  • Julia Zinkina

    (International Laboratory for Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North African path†and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the “Bangladeshi path†and will not achieve substantial fertility declines in the foreseeable future. The Bangladeshi path implies the introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family planning programs, and a rise in the legal age for marriage with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the substantial increases in agricultural labor productivity concomitant with a decline in the percentage of the population employed in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2015. "East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 31(3), pages 385-420, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jodeso:v:31:y:2015:i:3:p:385-420
    DOI: 10.1177/0169796X15590322
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Liu, Yishuang & Huang, Jinpeng & Xu, Jianxiang & Xiong, Shufei, 2024. "Natural resource dependence and sustainable development policy: Insights from city-level analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Cellarier, Laurent L., 2021. "Is landownership a ladder out of poverty?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей) & Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) & Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия), 2017. "Country Risk Analysis Based on Demographic and Socio-Economic Data [Анализ Страновых Рисков С Использованием Демографических И Социально-Экономических Данных]," Working Papers 031715, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. Grinin, Leonid & Grinin, Anton & Korotayev, Andrey, 2020. "A quantitative analysis of worldwide long-term technology growth: From 40,000 BCE to the early 22nd century," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Andrey Korotayev & Ilya Vaskin & Stanislav Bilyuga & Alina Khokhlova & Anastasia Baltach & Eugeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina, 2017. "Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: A Re-Analysis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. da Silva Francisco, António A., 2017. "‘Gerontogrowth’ and population ageing in Africa and the Global AgeWatch Index," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 78-89.

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