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Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion

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  • Nils W. Metternich
  • Shahryar Minhas
  • Michael D. Ward

Abstract

While some borders are real firewalls against conflicts, others appear like tinder just waiting for the smallest spark. Only recently has research focused on the transnational perspective of conflict and current research has focused mostly on isolated aspects of this phenomenon. In this article, we provide a unified framework for conflict contagion that takes into account receiver, sender, dyad, and network effects. This is a novel perspective on conflict contagion, and our empirical results suggest that distinguishing between sender and receiver effects allows for a better understanding of spillover effects. We provide insights that especially excluded ethnic groups impact the risk of countries sending and receiving conflicts from its neighbors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils W. Metternich & Shahryar Minhas & Michael D. Ward, 2017. "Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(6), pages 1151-1173, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:61:y:2017:i:6:p:1151-1173
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002715603452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Garcia, Blake E. & Wimpy, Cameron, 2016. "Does Information Lead to Emulation? Spatial Dependence in Anti-Government Violence," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 27-46, January.
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