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Climate Change and Civil Unrest

Author

Listed:
  • Peter F. Nardulli

    (Cline Center for Democracy, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA)

  • Buddy Peyton

    (Cline Center for Democracy, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA)

  • Joseph Bajjalieh

    (Cline Center for Democracy, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA)

Abstract

This article examines the destabilizing impact of rapid-onset, climate-related disasters. It uses a sample of storms and floods in conjunction with two intensity measures of civil unrest to examine two perspectives on human reactions to disasters (conflictual, cooperative). It also uses insights from the contentious politics literature to understand how emotions posited by the conflictual perspective are transformed into destabilizing acts. While the data show that mean levels of unrest are higher in the wake of disasters, the means poorly reflect the data: the vast majority of episodes do not show higher levels of unrest. Moreover, even when higher levels of unrest emerge, they are not a simple reflection of disaster's human impact; this underscores the importance of the transformational process. Thus, a preliminary model of political violence is investigated; it employs impact, process and institutional variables and it explains three-quarters of the variance in the intensity of violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter F. Nardulli & Buddy Peyton & Joseph Bajjalieh, 2015. "Climate Change and Civil Unrest," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(2), pages 310-335, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:59:y:2015:i:2:p:310-335
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    2. Zhang, Y. & Weng, W.G. & Huang, Z.L., 2018. "A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 197-207.
    3. Michael Brzoska, 2019. "Understanding the Disaster–Migration–Violent Conflict Nexus in a Warming World: The Importance of International Policy Interventions," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.

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