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Arms Diffusion and War

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammet A. Bas

    (Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA)

  • Andrew J. Coe

    (Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA)

Abstract

The authors present a model of the relationship between the spread of new military technologies and the occurrence of war. A new technology could shift the balance of power, causing anticipatory war as one side tries to prevent the other from obtaining it. When one side already has it, war is more likely when the shift in power is large, likely, and durable. When neither side has it, war is more likely when the expected shift is asymmetric (e.g., one side is more likely to get it) and when the two sides fear that a war will occur once one of them has it. The authors illustrate the model with historical examples from the spread of firearms (the Musket Wars in precolonial New Zealand) and of nuclear weapons (the end of US nuclear monopoly and the 1967 Six-Day War). A broader implication is that major power competition can unintentionally cause wars elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammet A. Bas & Andrew J. Coe, 2012. "Arms Diffusion and War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(4), pages 651-674, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:56:y:2012:i:4:p:651-674
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jelnov, Artyom & Tauman, Yair & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2018. "Confronting an enemy with unknown preferences: Deterrer or provocateur?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 124-143.
    2. Jelnov, Artyom & Tauman, Yair & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2017. "Attacking the unknown weapons of a potential bomb builder: The impact of intelligence on the strategic interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 177-189.

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