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Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Belkin

    (Department of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Evan Schofer

    (Department of Sociology University of Minnesota)

Abstract

Although coup risk plays an important role in theories of war, revolution, and democratization, scholars have not developed a rigorous conceptualization and valid measure of the concept. We develop a structural understanding of coup risk as distinct from proximate causes of coups as well as coup-proofing strategies that regimes implement to avert coups. Theoretical insights into factors that predispose regimes toward coup vulnerability provide the groundwork for an improved measure based on strength of civil society, legitimacy, and past coups. Cross-national statistical analyses are used to significantly improve on previous coupincidence models and highlight deficiencies of the common approach to measuring coup risk. The structural conceptualization of coup risk enhances understanding of broader civil-military dynamics, in particular the well-known distinction between motives and opportunities for launching coups. This distinction is shown to be insensitive to an important observational equivalence: that coups may be rare in both high-and low-risk cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Belkin & Evan Schofer, 2003. "Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(5), pages 594-620, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:47:y:2003:i:5:p:594-620
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002703258197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Siverson, Randolph M. & Woller, Gary, 1992. "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 638-646, September.
    2. Huth, Paul & Russett, Bruce, 1993. "General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 61-73, March.
    3. Skyrms, Brian, 1988. "Probability and causation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 53-68.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bove, Vincenzo & Nisticò, Roberto, 2014. "Military in politics and budgetary allocations," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1065-1078.

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