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Shocks to the System

Author

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  • Michael Colaresi

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University)

Abstract

The different phases of the leadership long cycle are hypothesized to significantly alter the number of great power rivalries that terminate and initiate. Specifically, the global war phase is expected to “shock†dyads into and out of rivalry. Bivariate and multivariate event history techniques are used to show that periods of capability deconcentration are associated with increased great power rivalry terminations but not initiations. Furthermore, terminations are less likely to occur during phases of systemic capability concentration than in other periods, as the theory predicts. The expectations concerning rivalry initiations are not supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Colaresi, 2001. "Shocks to the System," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(5), pages 569-593, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:5:p:569-593
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045005002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. Scott Bennett & Allan C. Stam, 2000. "Eugene : A conceptual manual," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 179-204, March.
    2. Huth, Paul & Russett, Bruce, 1993. "General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 61-73, March.
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