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Do Outbreaks of War Follow a Poisson-Process?

Author

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  • H. W. Houweling
  • J. B. Kuné

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Richardson's finding that the distribution of war outbreaks in time conforms to the Poisson distribution has been repeated over and over again. In this article, we argue that the close correspondence between the two distributions does not imply that the mechanism generating the data is the Poisson process. Because the time sequence is broken down in Richardson's analysis, his finding does not imply that war outbreaks follow a distinct pattern in time. The Parzen test on arrival times revealed that war outbreaks are not generated by a Poisson random process.

Suggested Citation

  • H. W. Houweling & J. B. Kuné, 1984. "Do Outbreaks of War Follow a Poisson-Process?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 51-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:28:y:1984:i:1:p:51-61
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002784028001003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McGowan, Patrick J. & Rood, Robert M., 1975. "Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 859-870, September.
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