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Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe

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  • McGowan, Patrick J.
  • Rood, Robert M.

Abstract

This paper is a partial systematic test of Morton A. Kaplan's “theory” of alliance behavior in balance of power international systems first proposed in his well-known System and Process in International Politics (1957). Three hypotheses are inferred from Kaplan's writings predicting that in a stable balance of power system, (a) alliances will occur randomly with respect to time; (b) the time intervals between alliances will also be randomly distributed; and (c) a decline in systemic alliance formation rates precedes system changing events, such as general war. We check these hypotheses by applying probability theory, specifically a Poisson model, to the analysis of new data on fifty-five alliances among the five major European powers during the period 1814–1914. Because our research questions are so general, our findings should not be regarded as definitive; however, the data very strongly support our hypotheses. We conclude that Kaplan's verbal model of a balance of power international system has had its credibility enhanced as a result of this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • McGowan, Patrick J. & Rood, Robert M., 1975. "Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 859-870, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:69:y:1975:i:03:p:859-870_24
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Stoll, 1984. "Bloc Concentration and the Balance of Power," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 25-50, March.
    2. Michael W. Simon & Erik Gartzke, 1996. "Political System Similarity And The Choice of Allies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(4), pages 617-635, December.
    3. G. D. Hess, 1995. "An Introduction To Lewis Fry Richardson and His Mathematical Theory of War and Peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 14(1), pages 77-113, February.
    4. H. W. Houweling & J. B. Kuné, 1984. "Do Outbreaks of War Follow a Poisson-Process?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 51-61, March.
    5. Harvey Starr, 1991. "Democratic Dominoes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 356-381, June.
    6. Henry S. Farber & Joanne Gowa, 1995. "Common Interests or Common Polities? Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace," NBER Working Papers 5005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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