IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v26y1982i3p423-450.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrative Complexity Theory and Forecasting International Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Theodore D. Raphael

    (Consultant, Washington, D.C.)

Abstract

Can integrative complexity theory be successfully employed to forecast international crises? To answer this question this study focuses on the conflict-prone relationship between the United States and USSR in Berlin, 1946 to 1962. Two hypotheses were tested. Hypothesis 1 predicted that significant declines in the cognitive complexity of U.S. and USSR foreign policy elites would be exhibited just prior to the onset of crises in June 1948 and June 1961. Hypothesis 2 predicted, however, that following the onset of crisis, the participants would exhibit patterns of rising complexity leading to peaceful conflict resolution. The results generally supported the hypotheses. First, significant declines in complexity occurred from 1946 to 1962 only in the two periods ending six months prior to the two major crises. Second, significant phase-to-phase increases in complexity were exhibited by the participants in both crises. The study provides initial evidence of the theory's utility for crisis forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore D. Raphael, 1982. "Integrative Complexity Theory and Forecasting International Crises," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(3), pages 423-450, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:26:y:1982:i:3:p:423-450
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002782026003002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002782026003002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002782026003002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Markéta Novotná, 2017. "Currernt Development In Schengen: A Proof Of Its Crisis Or Flexibility?," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 15(4), pages 407-434.
    2. Ľubomír Čech, 2017. "Stredoázijskí Islamisti V Sýrskom Konflikte A Ich Vplyv Na Radikalizáciu Domovských Krajín," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 15(4), pages 344-357.
    3. Pavel Neumann, 2017. "Hospodářská Politika Trumpovy Administrativy Jako Kontroverzní Faktor Změn Globalizační Dynamiky," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 15(4), pages 390-406.
    4. Shira Tibon, 2000. "Personality Traits and Peace Negotiations: Integrative Complexity and Attitudes toward the Middle East Peace Process," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Alexandar Dashtevski & Jana Ilieva, 2017. "International Legal Framework For Dealing With Hate Speech," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 15(4), pages 358-370.
    6. Margaréta Nadányiová, 2017. "Zmyslový Marketing Ako Nástroj Budovania Značky Na Medzinárodnom Trhu," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 15(4), pages 371-389.
    7. Shira Tibon Czopp & Liat Appel & Ruth Zeligman, 2014. "Relational Psychoanalytic Perspective on the Negotiation Dialogue: Using the Rorschach Inkblot Method for Assessing Integrative Complexity," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 1177-1189, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:26:y:1982:i:3:p:423-450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.