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A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment

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  • Massimiliano Tancioni
  • Roberto Simonetti

Abstract

This paper introduces the theoretical foundations and the structure of a macroeconometric model for the analysis of compensation schemes. After a brief explanation of the main relationships between technical change and employment, the general structure of the model is outlined with reference to the objective of the analysis. The formal model illustrates a possible way of approaching, from a macroeconomic perspective, the analysis of the complex relations between technological change, trade, growth and employment dynamics. The aim is to highlight the relevance of some aspects that in the past have only received a minor treatment in mainstream contributions to the issue. In particular, the strong dependence of the results on distribution and demand is recognized. The model proposed is the extended version of a macroeconomic model previously presented by Vivarelli (1995). Modifications have both theoretical and technical relevance. Some results from an application to Italy and the United Kingdom follow a brief discussion on the techniques adopted for the econometric estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Tancioni & Roberto Simonetti, 2002. "A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 13(1-3), pages 185-221, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jinter:v:13:y:2002:i:1-3:p:185-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Ugur, Mehmet & Mitra, Arup, 2017. "Technology Adoption and Employment in Less Developed Countries: A Mixed-Method Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Juan Felipe Mejía Mejía & Yurani Arias Granada, 2014. "Innovation and its Effects on Employment Composition: Microeconomic Evidence from Colombian Firms," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 12338, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 146501.
    4. Luisa Gagliardi & Giovanni Marin & Caterina Miriello, 2014. "The Greener the Better: Job Creation and Environmentally- Friendly Technological Change," IEFE Working Papers 60, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Durmuş Çagri Yildirim & Seda Yildirim & Seyfettin Erdogan & Tugba Kantarci, 2022. "Innovation—Unemployment Nexus: The case of EU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1208-1219, January.
    6. Chee‐Hong Law & Siong Hook Law, 2024. "The non‐linear impacts of innovation on unemployment: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 402-424, January.
    7. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Fulvio Castellacci & Isabel Alvarez, 2006. "Innovation, Diffusion and Cumulative Causation: Changes in the Spanish Growth Regime, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 223-241.
    9. Sami Saafi, 2010. "Conséquences de la diffusion des innovations technologiques sur l'emploi industriel en Tunisie : Une analyse par les données de panel," Working paper serie RMT - Grenoble Ecole de Management hal-00477357, HAL.
    10. Mario Pianta, 2018. "Technology and Employment: Twelve Stylised Facts for the Digital Age," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 189-225, June.
    11. Luisa Gagliardi, 2014. "Employment and Technological Change: On the Geography of Labour Market Adjustments," SERC Discussion Papers 0165, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Kristina Matuzeviciute & Mindaugas Butkus & Akvile Karaliute, 2017. "Do Technological Innovations Affect Unemployment? Some Empirical Evidence from European Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Sami Saafi, 2010. "Conséquences de la diffusion des innovations technologiques sur l'emploi industriel en Tunisie : Une analyse par les données de panel," Working Papers hal-00477357, HAL.
    14. Ugur, Mehmet & Mitra, Arup, 2014. "Effects of innovation on employment in low-income countries: A mixed-method systematic review," MPRA Paper 58214, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Aug 2014.
    15. Sami Saafi, 2008. "Diffusion des innovations technologiques, emploi et théorie de compensation (The diffusion of technological innovations, employment and the compensation theory)," Working Papers 184, Laboratoire de Recherche sur l'Industrie et l'Innovation. ULCO / Research Unit on Industry and Innovation.

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