IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jfasei/v6y2024i1p90-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Complementarity Versus Substitution Relationship between Outward FDI and Exports: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Bishwanath Goldar
  • Yashobanta Parida
  • Anindita Goldar

Abstract

The article is concerned with the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and exports and asks if these two flows are substitutes or complement each other. Empirical work in this area employing industry- or country-level data has generally found a positive or complementary relationship between exports and FDI. Our empirical strategy is different in that we try to throw some light on the issue of substitution versus complementarity between FDI and exports by carrying out econometric analyses directed at assessing how India’s mass termination of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in March 2017 and such BIT terminations during September–December 2016 and April 2017 to December 2018 impacted India’s FDI inflows and imports. Our finding of a significant negative effect of BIT termination on FDI inflows, corroborating the findings of two earlier studies and the finding of a significant positive impact of BIT termination of India’s imports is conceivably reconcilable only if there is a substitution relationship between FDI and exports. Hence, we find some empirical evidence of a substitution relationship between FDI and exports—at least, this has been the relationship between India’s inflow of FDI and the inflow of goods as imports, if not valid for other countries. JEL codes: C31, C33, K33, F21

Suggested Citation

  • Bishwanath Goldar & Yashobanta Parida & Anindita Goldar, 2024. "Complementarity Versus Substitution Relationship between Outward FDI and Exports: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 6(1), pages 90-117, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jfasei:v:6:y:2024:i:1:p:90-117
    DOI: 10.1177/26316846241229827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/26316846241229827
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/26316846241229827?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hafiz M. Sohail & Mir Zatullah & Zengfu Li, 2021. "Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Bilateral Trade: Experience From Asian Emerging Economies," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    2. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2012. "FDI versus Exports: Multiple Host Countries and Empirical Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 316-330, March.
    3. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1999. "International trade and factor mobility: an empirical investigation," Staff Reports 81, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Liu, Zhiyuan & Xu, Yue & Wang, Peijie & Akamavi, Raphaël, 2016. "A pendulum gravity model of outward FDI and export," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1356-1371.
    5. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, April.
    6. Goh, Soo Khoon & Sam, Chung Yan & McNown, Robert, 2017. "Re-examining foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in asian economies using a bootstrap ARDL test for cointegration," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 12-22.
    7. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1989. "Product Development and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1261-1283, December.
    8. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2022. "Does FDI have differential impacts on exports? Evidence from developing countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 227-237.
    9. Jaya Prakash Pradhan, 2011. "Emerging Multinationals: A Comparison of Chinese and Indian Outward Foreign Direct Investment," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 3(1), pages 113-148, April.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    11. Ellingsen, Gaute & Likumahuwa, Winfried & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2006. "Outward FDI by Singapore: a different animal?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3947, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    13. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    14. Yung-Heng Lee & Yann-Haur Huang & Mei-Jane Chan, 2009. "An Empirical Study Of Wholly-Owned Subsidiaries And Joint Ventures For Entry Into China Markets," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 9-22.
    15. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    16. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    17. Clausing, Kimberly A, 2000. "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 190-205, April.
    18. Amiti, Mary & Wakelin, Katharine, 2003. "Investment liberalization and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-126, October.
    19. Niti Bhasin & Kanika Kapoor, 2020. "Impact of outward FDI on home country exports," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(6), pages 1150-1175, July.
    20. Sahoo, Pravakar & Dash, Ranjan Kumar, 2022. "Does FDI have differential impacts on exports? Evidence from developing countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 227-237.
    21. Hela Bouras & Bechir Raggad, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports: Complementarity or Substitutability An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 933-941.
    22. Grubert, Harry & Mutti, John, 1991. "Taxes, Tariffs and Transfer Pricing in Multinational Corporate Decision Making," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 285-293, May.
    23. Theodore H. Moran, 2011. "Foreign Direct Investment and Development: Launching a Second Generation of Policy Research: Avoiding the Mistakes of the First, Reevaluating Policies for Developed and Developing Countries," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6000, April.
    24. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1981. "Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 488-494, November.
    25. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    26. Tingting Xiong & Hao Sun, 2021. "Structure and dynamics of global capital and international trade: Analysis of the relationship between exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) from 2001 to 2006," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 542-559, January.
    27. Neelam Singh, 2013. "Influence of outward-foreign direct investment and technological efforts on exports: Indian auto component firms," Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 205-221, October.
    28. Rosa Forte & Vera Silva, 2017. "Outward FDI and Home Country Exports: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Evidence," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 245-271, May.
    29. Kim, June-Dong & Rang, In-Soo, 1997. "Outward FDI and exports: The case of South Korea and Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 39-50.
    30. Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Umar Draz & Su-Chang Yang, 2018. "Causality nexus of exports, FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 685-700, August.
    31. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1984. "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 304-308, May.
    32. Ajit Dasgupta & Natteri Siddharthan, 1985. "Industrial Distribution of Indian Exports and Joint Ventures Abroad," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 159-174, January.
    33. Marian Catalin Voica & Mirela Panait & Eglantina Hysa & Arjona Cela & Otilia Manta, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade—Between Complementarity and Substitution. Evidence from European Union Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, November.
    34. Simon Hartmann & Rok Spruk, 2023. "The impact of unilateral BIT terminations on FDI: Quasi-experimental evidence from India," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 259-296, April.
    35. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Understanding German FDI in Latin America and Asia: A Comparison of GLM Estimators," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, March.
    36. David W Loree & Stephen E Guisinger, 1995. "Policy and Non-Policy Determinants of U.S. Equity Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 26(2), pages 281-299, June.
    37. John Cantwell & Rajneesh Narula, 2001. "The Eclectic Paradigm in the Global Economy," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 155-172.
    38. Jan Johanson & Jan-Erik Vahlne, 1977. "The Internationalization Process of the Firm—A Model of Knowledge Development and Increasing Foreign Market Commitments," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 8(1), pages 23-32, March.
    39. Lipsey, Robert E. & Ramstetter, Eric D., 2003. "Japanese exports, MNC affiliates, and rivalry for export markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 101-117, June.
    40. Avik Chakrabarti, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross‐Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-114, February.
    41. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    42. Niti Bhasin & Rinku Manocha, 2016. "Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Promote FDI Inflows? Evidence from India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(4), pages 275-287, December.
    43. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Hinrich Voss & Ping Zheng, 2007. "The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(4), pages 499-518, July.
    44. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Overseas Investment and Firm Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 108-122, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2013. "Trade linkages of inward and outward FDI: Evidence from Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 224-230.
    2. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2012. "Does Outward FDI Matter in International Trade? Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 39715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Prajukta Tripathy & Pragyanrani Behera & Bikash Ranjan Mishra, 2023. "Study of linkages between productivity, export, and outward foreign direct investment: An empirical perspective of Indian manufacturing industries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1527-1548, April.
    4. Raphael Chiappini & François Viaud, 2021. "Macroeconomic, institutional, and sectoral determinants of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 404-433, August.
    5. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    6. Xiong, Tingting, 2022. "The Effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-79.
    7. Haoyuan Ding & Kees G. Koedijk & Chang Li & Tong Qi, 2021. "The internationalisation of Chinese firms: Impact of FDI experience on export performance," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(12), pages 3609-3640, December.
    8. Tingting Xiong & Hao Sun, 2021. "Structure and dynamics of global capital and international trade: Analysis of the relationship between exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) from 2001 to 2006," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 542-559, January.
    9. Koi Nyen Wong & Soo Khoon Goh, 2013. "Outward FDI, merchandise and services trade: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 276-291, April.
    10. Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2013. "Global production sharing and the FDI–trade nexus: New evidence from the Japanese automobile industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 64-80.
    11. Amiti, Mary & Wakelin, Katharine, 2003. "Investment liberalization and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-126, October.
    12. Chih-Fan Lin, 2016. "Does Chinese OFDI really promote export?," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Jean‐Charles Bricongne & Sebastian Franco Bedoya & Margarita Lopez Forero, 2023. "The proximity‐concentration trade‐off with multi‐product firms: Are exports and FDI complements or substitutes?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1264-1289, May.
    14. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rosa Forte, 2004. "The relationship between foreign direct investment and international trade. Substitution or complementarity? A survey," FEP Working Papers 140, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Anwar, Amar Iqbal & Hasse, Rolf & Rabbi, Fazli, 2008. "Location Determinants of Indian Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Multinationals Choose their Investment Destinations?," MPRA Paper 47397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jin Inhwan, 2008. "Is Japanese FDI a Substitute for or a Complement to Trade in Asia?," TERG Discussion Papers 236, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University, revised Oct 2008.
    18. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "General-Equilibrium Approaches to the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: Knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects," EconStor Preprints 266494, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Heather Berry, 2010. "Why Do Firms Divest?," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 380-396, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports–OFDI relationship; Bilateral investment treaties; India’s FDI and imports; Gravity model; Difference-in-difference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jfasei:v:6:y:2024:i:1:p:90-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.