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Modeling the Regional Impact of Natural Disaster and Recovery: A General Framework and an Application to Hurricane Andrew

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  • Carol T. West

    (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville FL 32611 USA)

  • David G. Lenze

    (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville FL 32611 USA)

Abstract

Two common features of natural disasters are intense regional impact and the call immediately after the event to estimate the economic impact of recovery and reconstruction. The broad purpose of this paper is to help fill the gap in the regional science literature that addresses this issue. Initially, the impact estimation problem is presented conceptually. Using a general regional model schematic, direct disaster impacts on exogenous variables, endogenous variables, and model linkages are identified. Next, the conceptual problem is adapted for practical application. This translation has two aspects: (1) modifying the direct impacts for a specific model (common variants from the schematic are considered) and (2) estimating those impacts from available data. One component of the latter identifies primary sources of information typically available at the time of a natural disaster and indicates how secondary data may be used to complement, cross-check, and expand those data. A second component identifies areas of no information or high uncertainty and discusses treatment of that information gap in empirical analysis. A final section applies the research to the problem of estimating the impact of Hurricane Andrew on the economy of Florida.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol T. West & David G. Lenze, 1994. "Modeling the Regional Impact of Natural Disaster and Recovery: A General Framework and an Application to Hurricane Andrew," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 17(2), pages 121-150, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:17:y:1994:i:2:p:121-150
    DOI: 10.1177/016001769401700201
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    1. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    2. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of natural disasters on the stock returns and volatilities of local firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 259-270.
    3. Stéphane Hallegatte & Valentin Przyluski, 2010. "The Economics of Natural Disasters," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 14-24, July.
    4. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2019. "Municipal financing costs following disasters," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 48-64.
    5. Ewing Bradley T. & Kruse Jamie Brown & Sutter Daniel, 2009. "An Overview of Hurricane Katrina and Economic Loss," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Walker Douglas M & Jackson John D, 2009. "Katrina and the Gulf States Casino Industry," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Iman Rahimi Aloughareh & Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany & Kiarash Nasserasadi, 2016. "An Integrated Methodology For Regional Macroeconomic Loss Estimation Of Earthquake: A Case Study Of Tehran," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    8. Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2008. "Assessing the Consequences of Natural Disasters on Production Networks: A Disaggregated Approach," Coalition Theory Network Working Papers 46657, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Carmen Camacho & Yu Sun, 2017. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes," Working Papers halshs-01670507, HAL.
    10. David G. Lenze, 1997. "Dynamic and Spatial Impact of Hurricane Andrew on Florida'S Taxable Sales: An Intervention Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183, Fall.
    11. Anita A. Pena & Sammy Zahran & Anthony Underwood & Stephan Weiler, 2014. "Effect of Natural Disasters on Local Nonprofit Activity," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 590-610, December.
    12. Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2019. "Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1069-1098, April.
    13. Robert A. Baade & Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson, 2007. "Estimating the Economic Impact of Natural and Social Disasters, with an Application to Hurricane Katrina," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(11), pages 2061-2076, October.
    14. Carmen Camacho & Yu Sun, 2017. "Longterm decision making under the threat of earthquakes," PSE Working Papers halshs-01670507, HAL.

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