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A Model of Urbanization with Nonlinear Migration Flows

Author

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  • Jacques Ledent

    (INRS-Urbanisation, University of Quebec, 3465 Durocher Street, Montreal, Quebec H2X 2C6, Canada)

Abstract

This paper seeks an appropriate specification of the migration exchange between rural and urban areas so that the implied evolution of the degree of urbanization agrees with its commonly observed S-shape. After demonstrating that the gross migration flows between rural and urban areas should be specified as nonlinear functions of the population in the origin sector, the paper introduces a model in which such flows are represented by gravity-type functional forms. When proper bounds are imposed on the parameters of these functional forms, the model yields an evolution of the degree of urbanization that is depicted by a logistic curve. It thus can be used to give insights into the time paths of three basic urbanization variables: the urban-rural growth rate differential, the rural net outmigration rate, and the urban net immigration rate. All take on a zero value at the two extremes of the urbanization process and evolve in between according to a bell-shaped curve. These findings are illustrated by applying the model to data from the United States for the period 1790-1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Ledent, 1986. "A Model of Urbanization with Nonlinear Migration Flows," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(3), pages 221-242, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:10:y:1986:i:3:p:221-242
    DOI: 10.1177/016001768601000303
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stuart Dodd, 1956. "Testing message diffusion in harmonic logistic curves," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 21(2), pages 191-205, June.
    2. Ledent, Jacques, 1982. "Rural-Urban Migration, Urbanization, and Economic Development," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 507-538, April.
    3. Michael Sonis, 1983. "Spatio‐Temporal Spread Of Competitive Innovations: An Ecological Approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 159-174, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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