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The Effect of Intensive Margin Changes to Task Content on Employment Dynamics over the Business Cycle

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  • Matthew Ross

Abstract

Previous empirical studies investigating the employment impact of technological change have relied on cross-sectional measures of occupational tasks. Here, the author links microdata on individual workers to panel data on occupational tasks while controlling for individual unobservables. In examining the association between routine and abstract tasks and employment transitions, he finds new and economically important evidence that changes to tasks within occupations are strongly related to variation in the transition rates to non-employment and to different occupations. Consistent with recent work focused on technological change during the Great Recession, within-occupation increases in routine tasks are found to increase outgoing transition rates but these effects are concentrated during periods of economic turmoil. The results also show that increases in abstract tasks are associated with decreases in the outgoing transition rates, but this relationship is relatively invariant to business cycle conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Ross, 2021. "The Effect of Intensive Margin Changes to Task Content on Employment Dynamics over the Business Cycle," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(4), pages 1036-1064, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:74:y:2021:i:4:p:1036-1064
    DOI: 10.1177/0019793920910747
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    Cited by:

    1. Consoli, Davide & Marin, Giovanni & Rentocchini, Francesco & Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Routinization, within-occupation task changes and long-run employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    2. James C. Davis & Holden A. Diethorn & Gerald R. Marschke & Andrew J. Wang, 2021. "STEM Employment Resiliency During Recessions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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