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A Dynamic Relationship between Financial Development and Import Demand for Bangladesh: An Evidence from Combine Cointegration and Granger Causality Approach

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  • Muhammad Ahad
  • Adeel Ahmad Dar

Abstract

This article has estimated the impact of financial development on import demand over the period of 1986: Q1–2014: Q4 in case of Bangladesh. The long-run relationship between financial development, import demand and economic growth are investigated by combine cointegration. Error Correction Method (ECM) is applied to examine short-run phenomena. The unit root properties of variables are tested by augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and Philips–Perron (P–P) unit root test. Perron (1997) single structural break unit root test is also applied. The results of Bayer and Hanck (2013) combine cointegration test that reveal the existence of long-run relationship between import demand, financial development and economic growth. Financial development and economic growth have a positive and significant impact on import demand in long run as well as in short run. The lagged value of error correction method (ECMt-1) is –0.08 that is negative and significant. This indicates that change from equilibrium level of import demand is corrected by 8 per cent per quarter in a year. The results of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality explain that bidirectional causality exists between import demand and financial development in long run as well as short run. Similarly, bidirectional causality exists between import demand and economic growth in short run. Policymakers should focus on financial sector development for import of technology through adoption of the import substitution policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Ahad & Adeel Ahmad Dar, 2018. "A Dynamic Relationship between Financial Development and Import Demand for Bangladesh: An Evidence from Combine Cointegration and Granger Causality Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 543-555, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:19:y:2018:i:3:p:543-555
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150917713863
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; import demand; combine cointegration; VECM Granger causality; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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