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Understanding Pandemic Crisis in a Dependent Economy: A Structuralist Analysis

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  • Moumita Basu
  • Rilina Basu
  • Ranjanendra Narayan Nag

Abstract

The pandemic crisis and associated lockdown have led to diminution in demand on one hand and different types of supply side bottlenecks on the other. The article makes a theoretical attempt to assess macroeconomic dimensions of COVID-19 along with consequences of such crisis using a two-sector dependent economy model. In particular, the article investigates the implications of unanticipated adverse shock such as COVID-19 and wage cut for the dynamic interaction of Tobin’s q, price of non-traded goods and the exchange rate and sectoral composition of output and level of employment. The effects of expansionary fiscal policy and increase in risk premium are also highlighted as the part of concluding remarks. The results in this article critically depend on the difference in the speeds of adjustments in the Tobin’s q, exchange rate and price of non-traded goods and different types of cross effects emanating from changes in interconnected macroeconomic variables. While the pandemic crisis leads to contraction of all the sectors and decrease in level of employment in the short-run with uncertain medium-run implications, the wage cut somewhat arrests the fall in employment. JEL Codes: E24, F41, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Moumita Basu & Rilina Basu & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag, 2024. "Understanding Pandemic Crisis in a Dependent Economy: A Structuralist Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(4), pages 562-587, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:59:y:2024:i:4:p:562-587
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325231166763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    2. Mojtaba Hajian Heidary, 2022. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Supply Chain Operations: A System Dynamics Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(2), pages 198-220, May.
    3. Menna Bizuneh & Menelik Geremew, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies’ (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 519-545, October.
    4. Deepankar Sinha & Virupaxi Bagodi & Debasri Dey, 2020. "The Supply Chain Disruption Framework Post COVID-19: A System Dynamics Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(4), pages 511-534, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; employment; exchange rate; dependent economy; non-traded sector; Tobin’s q;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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