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Inflation Adjustment, Endogenous Risk Premium and Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Analysis

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  • Moumita Basu
  • Rilina Basu
  • Ranjanendra Narayan Nag

Abstract

This article develops a full employment monetary framework that deals with the interaction between exchange rate and inflation rate dynamics, emphasising the existence of risk premium. The economy consists of internal and foreign bonds. These are close substitutes since there exists a risk premium that depends on inflation rate, budget deficit and net exports. According to the monetary policy rule, both inflation rate and exchange rate negatively influence money supply. Overtime, changes in inflation rate are proportional to the excess supply in the money market. The dynamic adjustment of exchange rate arises due to discrepancy between home interest rate and world rate of interest and risk premium. Based on this framework, we investigate the implications of increase in exports, technological innovation and policy mix for the interaction between exchange rate and inflation rate. JEL Codes: E31, E63, F32, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Moumita Basu & Rilina Basu & Ranjanendra Narayan Nag, 2024. "Inflation Adjustment, Endogenous Risk Premium and Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(2), pages 225-251, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:59:y:2024:i:2:p:225-251
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325221145398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation rate; exchange rate; risk premium; macroeconomic policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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