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Trade Data Falsification and Informal Capita Movement: A Study of Bangladesh with Major Asian Trade Partners

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  • Samir Kumer Das
  • Amit K. Biswas

Abstract

The imposition of restrictive trade policies and consequent fabrication of foreign trade statistics acts as hindrance for effective policy formulations in the developing countries. This article presents the trade misreporting scenario of Bangladesh in relation to major Asian trade partner countries (China, India and Singapore) between 1973 and 2018 and examines the possibilities of informal capital movements across borders. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, we first build partner-level exercise, followed by a combined panel, and find that spot and forward exchange rates, custom duties and real interest rate differences between foreign and home largely affect trade misreporting rates. Interestingly, we also find that the values of past import under-invoicing might also lead to export under-invoicing and vice versa, a two-way causal relationship. JEL Codes: F14, F68, C10, C52

Suggested Citation

  • Samir Kumer Das & Amit K. Biswas, 2023. "Trade Data Falsification and Informal Capita Movement: A Study of Bangladesh with Major Asian Trade Partners," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(4), pages 467-483, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:58:y:2023:i:4:p:467-483
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325221120720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Biswas, Amit K. & von Hagen, Jürgen & Sarkar, Sandip, 2022. "FDI Mismatch, trade Mis-reporting, and hidden capital Movements: The USA - China case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Marjit, Sugata & Biswas, Amit K. & Beladi, Hamid, 2008. "Minimize regulations to regulate -- Extending the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 623-627, July.
    4. Biswas, Amit K. & Marjit, Sugata, 2007. "Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 130-138.
    5. Amit K. Biswas, 2012. "Import tariff led export under-invoicing: A paradox," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 347-360, April.
    6. Hansa Jain, 2019. "Implications of SAFTA for Indian Economy: Trade, Compatibility and Welfare Effects," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 355-374, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade misreporting; policy variables; ARDL; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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