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Estimation of Seroprevalence, Rape, and Homelessness in the United States Using a Social Network Approach

Author

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  • Peter D. Killworth

    (Southampton Oceanography Centre)

  • Christopher McCarty

    (University of Florida)

  • H. Russell Bernard

    (University of Florida)

  • Gene Ann Shelley

    (Georgia State University)

  • Eugene C. Johnsen

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

Abstract

The authors have developed and tested scale-up methods, based on a simple social network theory, to estimate the size of hard-to-count subpopulations. The authors asked a nationally representative sample of respondents how many people they knew in a list of 32 subpopulations, including 29 subpopulations of known size and 3 of unknown size. Using these responses, the authors produced an effectively unbiased maximum likelihood estimate of the number of people each respondent knows. These estimates were then used to back-estimate the size of the three populations of unknown size. Maximum likelihood values and 95% confidence intervals are found for seroprevalence, 800,000 ±43,000; for homeless, 526,000 ±35,000; and for women raped in the last 12 months, 194,000±21,000. The estimate for seroprevalence agrees strikingly with medical estimates, the homeless estimate is well within the published estimates, and the authors' estimate lies in the middle of the published range for rape victims.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter D. Killworth & Christopher McCarty & H. Russell Bernard & Gene Ann Shelley & Eugene C. Johnsen, 1998. "Estimation of Seroprevalence, Rape, and Homelessness in the United States Using a Social Network Approach," Evaluation Review, , vol. 22(2), pages 289-308, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:22:y:1998:i:2:p:289-308
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X9802200205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Link, B.G. & Susser, E. & Stueve, A. & Phelan, J. & Moore, R.E. & Struening, E., 1994. "Lifetime and five-year prevalence of homelessness in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 84(12), pages 1907-1912.
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    1. Beáta Dávid & Tom Snijders, 2002. "Estimating the Size of the Homeless Population in Budapest, Hungary," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 291-303, August.
    2. Dennis M. Feehan & Mary Mahy & Matthew J. Salganik, 2017. "The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1503-1528, August.

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