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Offender Expectations and Identification of Crime Supply Functions

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  • Thomas F. Pogue

    (University of Iowa)

Abstract

Econometric studies of crime have typically assumed that crime rates and sanction levels are determined simultaneously. and to achieve identification they have assumed that particular exogenous variables affect sanction levels but not crime rates. In this article it is suggested that individuals'decisions on whether to participate in criminal activity depend on perceived sanction levels that depend in turn on sanction levels realized in past periods. With decisions made in this manner, crime rates and sanction levels are not determined simultaneously, and the identification problem in its usual form does not arise. Our econometric results are consistent with this view; arrest and imprisonment sanctions have little contemporaneous effect on burglary, larceny, and robbery rates. Lagged effects, although greater than contemporaneous effects, are statistically significant only in the case of robbery.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas F. Pogue, 1986. "Offender Expectations and Identification of Crime Supply Functions," Evaluation Review, , vol. 10(4), pages 455-482, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:10:y:1986:i:4:p:455-482
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8601000403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard B. Freeman, 1982. "Crime and the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 1031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mathur, Vijay K, 1978. "Economics of Crime: An Investigation of the Deterrent Hypothesis for Urban Areas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(3), pages 459-466, August.
    4. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1978. "An Economic Analysis of Crime and Punishment in England and Wales, 1894-1967," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 815-840, October.
    5. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    6. Sjoquist, David Lawrence, 1973. "Property Crime and Economic Behavior: Some Empirical Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 439-446, June.
    7. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "A Time Series-Cross Section Analysis of International Variation in Crime and Punishment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 417-423, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas F. Pogue, 1996. "Mounting fiscal pressures: how can state and local governments cope?," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, number 1996mfhcsalg, March.

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