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Bursts and Avalanches: The Dynamics of Polycentric Urban Evolution

Author

Listed:
  • Dani Broitman

    (ComplexCity Research Laboratory, Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel)

  • Daniel Czamanski

    (ComplexCity Research Laboratory, Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel)

Abstract

Urban construction activities are subject to periods of fast expansion followed by periods of slow growth. Some of these expansions are limited in size, while others are huge. Therefore, it is not surprising that equilibrium-oriented classical models of urban spatial structure are hard pressed to explain the formation of modern cities with polycentric structure and births of subcenters in particular. To understand the development of cities' spatial patterns we present a model of urban spatial dynamics that is driven by two types of real-estate entrepreneurs that differ in their degree of risk aversion. The developers act in the shadow of the city planning board that formulates urban development policy and defines the boundaries of future residential expansions. The model's salient feature is the time lag between the time of purchase of property rights by land developers and the time of the realization of revenues. We assume that this lag varies in space, being much larger in locations that are not zoned for building. It can be reduced by the planning board in cases of high demand for dwellings. We use the model to demonstrate how the interaction between demand for dwellings, the choices taken by each type of developer, and planning policies leads to the creation of new urban subcenters. The model dynamics are characterized by long out-of-equilibrium periods followed by sudden bursts of construction activity that resembles self-organized criticality.

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2015. "Bursts and Avalanches: The Dynamics of Polycentric Urban Evolution," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(1), pages 58-75, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:42:y:2015:i:1:p:58-75
    DOI: 10.1068/b39040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nataliya Rybnikova & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Initial signs of post-covid-19 physical structures of cities in Israel," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Czamanski, Daniel & Broitman, Dani, 2017. "Information and communication technology and the spatial evolution of mature cities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 30-38.
    3. Dani Broitman, 2020. "The Game of Developers and Planners: Ecosystem Services as a (Hidden) Regulation through Planning Delay Times," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Agung Wahyudi & Yan Liu & Jonathan Corcoran, 2021. "Simulating the impact of developers’ capital possession on urban development across a megacity: An agent-based approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(2), pages 376-391, February.
    5. Tianren Yang & Ying Jin & Longxu Yan & Pei Pei, 2019. "Aspirations and realities of polycentric development: Insights from multi-source data into the emerging urban form of Shanghai," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 46(7), pages 1264-1280, September.
    6. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2021. "Urban Structure in Troubled Times: The Evolution of Principal and Secondary Core/Periphery Gaps through the Prism of Residential Land Values," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-12, May.
    7. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(2), pages 429-445, April.
    8. Cats, Oded & Birch, Nigel, 2021. "Multi-modal network evolution in polycentric regions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

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