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WaterSim: A Simulation Model for Urban Water Planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Gober

    (Decision Center for a Desert City, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, and School of Sustainability, PO Box 878209, Tempe, AZ 85287-8209, USA)

  • Elizabeth A Wentz

    (School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, PO Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302, USA)

  • Timothy Lant

    (Decision Theater, Arizona State University, PO Box 878409, Tempe, AZ 85287-8409, USA)

  • Michael K Tschudi

    (Decision Center for a Desert City, Arizona State University, PO Box 878209, Tempe, AZ 85287-8209, USA)

  • Craig W Kirkwood

    (Department of Supply Chain Management, Arizona State University, PO Box 874706, Tempe, AZ 85287-4706, USA)

Abstract

WaterSim, a simulation model, was built and implemented to investigate how alternative climate conditions, rates of population growth, and policy choices interact to affect future water supply and demand conditions in Phoenix, AZ. WaterSim is a hierarchical model that represents supply from surface and groundwater sources and demand from residential, commercial, and agricultural user sectors, incorporating the rules that govern reservoirs, aquifer use, and land-use change. In this paper we: (1) report on the imperative for exploratory modeling in water-resource management, given the deep uncertainties of climate change, (2) describe the geographic context for the Phoenix case study, (3) outline the objectives and structure of WaterSim, (4) report on testing the model with sensitivity analyses and history matching, (5) demonstrate the application of the model through a series of simulation experiments, and (6) discuss the model's use for scenario planning and climate adaptation. Simulation results show there are significant challenges to Phoenix's water sustainability from climate change and rapid growth. Policies to address these challenges require difficult tradeoffs among lifestyles, groundwater sustainability, the pace of growth, and what is considered to be an appropriate level of risk of climate-induced shortage.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Gober & Elizabeth A Wentz & Timothy Lant & Michael K Tschudi & Craig W Kirkwood, 2011. "WaterSim: A Simulation Model for Urban Water Planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 38(2), pages 197-215, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:38:y:2011:i:2:p:197-215
    DOI: 10.1068/b36075
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    Cited by:

    1. Dave D. White & Amber Y. Wutich & Kelli L. Larson & Tim Lant, 2015. "Water management decision makers' evaluations of uncertainty in a decision support system: the case of WaterSim in the Decision Theater," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 616-630, April.

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