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The Use of Scenarios in Land-Use Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Wei-Ning Xiang

    (National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA)

  • Keith C Clarke

    (Department of Geography, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA)

Abstract

Land-development scenarios as a means of representing the future have been in the planner's toolkit for several decades. In this paper we provide a systematic view of four basic issues that concern scenarists and scenario users—the concepts, functions, credentials, and efficacy of land-development scenarios. Drawing upon the wealthy and expanding pool of knowledge and experience as reported in the literature, we put forward the notion that a land-development scenario set is both a bridge that connects the process of modeling with that of planning and a cognitive apparatus that stretches people's thinking and broadens their views in planning. The dual function entitles a scenario set to be a favored member of a family of innate instruments that humans operate in making decisions. Under this overarching framework, we propose three credentials that are by no means exhaustive yet are claimed to be essential for a scenario set to perform best the dual function. These are plausible unexpectedness, informational vividness, and cognitively ergonomic design. After exploring the efficacy issue of a scenario set with respect to its impacts on communities at large, we suggest that basic research efforts be underway that aim at the development of unified theories of land-development scenarios, or even scenarios in general, under a possible name of scenariology —the study of scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-Ning Xiang & Keith C Clarke, 2003. "The Use of Scenarios in Land-Use Planning," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 30(6), pages 885-909, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:30:y:2003:i:6:p:885-909
    DOI: 10.1068/b2945
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hubacek, Klaus & Sun, Laixiang, 2001. "A scenario analysis of China's land use and land cover change: incorporating biophysical information into input-output modeling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 367-397, December.
    2. Huffman, Brian, 2001. "What makes a strategy brilliant?," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 13-20.
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    1. Taher Osman & Prasanna Divigalpitiya & Takafumi Arima, 2016. "Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on land use in the Giza Governorate, Greater Cairo Metropolitan region," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 407-426, September.
    2. Jie Liu & Lang Zhang & Qingping Zhang, 2019. "The Development Simulation of Urban Green Space System Layout Based on the Land Use Scenario: A Case Study of Xuchang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.

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