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Employment, Transport Infrastructure, and Rural Depopulation: A New Spatial Equilibrium Model

Author

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  • David Philip McArthur

    (Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Postboks 1089, Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway and Stord/Haugesund University College)

  • Inge Thorsen

    (Stord/Haugesund University College, Postboks 5000, Stord, N-5409, Norway)

  • Jan Ubøe

    (NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Helleveien 30, NO-5045, Bergen, Norway)

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new spatial equilibrium model, and use it to discuss issues related to rural depopulation. The discussion focuses on how investments in transport infrastructure and the spatial distribution of basic-sector jobs can promote a relatively balanced growth of peripheral and central areas of a region. Through interdependencies in individual migration decisions and an economic base multiplier mechanism, negative exogenous shocks may take a peripheral zone beyond a bifurcation point, into an equilibrium of dramatically lower population and employment. We study how the location of bifurcation points depend on spatial interaction behavioural parameters and variables subject to regional policy. We also discuss the issue of the timing of interventions intended to prevent a process of rural depopulation.

Suggested Citation

  • David Philip McArthur & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2014. "Employment, Transport Infrastructure, and Rural Depopulation: A New Spatial Equilibrium Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(7), pages 1652-1665, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:46:y:2014:i:7:p:1652-1665
    DOI: 10.1068/a46120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitch Renkow, 2007. "Employment Growth and the Allocation of New Jobs: Spatial Spillovers of Economic and Fiscal Impacts," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 396-402.
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    9. Glenn, Paul & Thorsen, Inge & Ubøe, Jan, 2004. "Wage payoffs and distance deterrence in the journey to work," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 853-867, November.
    10. Handy, Susan L., 1992. "Regional Versus Local Accessibility: Neo-Traditional Development and Its Implications for Non-work Travel," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7gs0p1nc, University of California Transportation Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thorsen, Helge Sandvig & Thorsen, Inge, 2017. "Effects of transportation barriers on geographic asymmetries in labour markets," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 27-37.
    2. Azam Azad Gholami & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2024. "An Agent-based Approach to Study Spatial Structure Effects on Estimated Distance Deterrence in Commuting," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 621-653, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rural depopulation; spatial equilibrium model; spatial interaction; hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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