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Patterning in Urban Population Densities: A Spatiotemporal Model Compared with Toronto 1971–2001

Author

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  • Hugh Millward

    (Department of Geography, Saint Mary's University Halifax, NS B3H 3C3, Canada)

  • Trudi Bunting

    (Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

Abstract

We build on the literature on population-density distributions, but translate the consensus cross-sectional progression into a three-dimensional and six-stage geographic information system (GIS) based ‘volcano’ model. Visual comparison and descriptive statistics show Toronto's recent density patterns to be very similar to those suggested by the model: the central density cluster has reversed its decline, while peripheral clusters have developed at increasing distances from downtown. Local autocorrelation (LISA) allowed areas of significant clustering and diversity to be mapped, and strong conformity was found between the model and Toronto's empirical patterns. Overall, density levels throughout the metropolitan area are homogenizing and randomizing, even while inner-city redensification and peripheral densification proceed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugh Millward & Trudi Bunting, 2008. "Patterning in Urban Population Densities: A Spatiotemporal Model Compared with Toronto 1971–2001," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(2), pages 283-302, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:40:y:2008:i:2:p:283-302
    DOI: 10.1068/a38498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stern, David I, 1994. "Historical Path-Dependence of the Urban Population Density Gradient," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 28(2), pages 197-222.
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    3. Papageorgiou, Yorgos Y. & Pines, David, 1989. "The exponential density function: First principles, comparative statics, and empirical evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 264-268, September.
    4. Richardson, Harry W, 1988. "Monocentric vs. Policentric Models: The Future of Urban Economics in Regional Science," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 1-12, July.
    5. McDonald, John F., 1989. "Econometric studies of urban population density: A survey," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 361-385, November.
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    1. Gao, Liang & Miao, Yanan & Qin, Yuhao & Zhao, Xiaomei & Gao, Zi-You, 2015. "Finding topological center of a geographic space via road network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 128-133.

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