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Figuring the Costs of Climate Change: An Assessment and Critique

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  • D Demeritt

    (Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Environment Canada and School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, England)

  • D Rothman

    (Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Environment Canada and Sustainable Development Research Institute, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada¶)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the evidence for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) estimate that the costs of global climate change will be on the order of 1.5–2.0% of world gross domestic product (GDP). Although this estimate is widely and authoritatively repeated, it rests on a handful of preliminary studies, chiefly of the United States and performed by a select group of economists. We examine the methods and assumptions of these studies and consider the social and political commitments built into their analytical techniques. We conclude that the prevailing methods of economic damage assessment and valuation provide a highly conservative estimate of the potential costs and risks of future climate change. We suggest that the IPCC scientific assessment process has been organized in such a way as to foreclose public debate about the moral and political judgments built into the technical details of its reports.

Suggested Citation

  • D Demeritt & D Rothman, 1999. "Figuring the Costs of Climate Change: An Assessment and Critique," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(3), pages 389-408, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:31:y:1999:i:3:p:389-408
    DOI: 10.1068/a310389
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Creedy, John & Wurzbacher, Anke D., 2001. "The economic value of a forested catchment with timber, water and carbon sequestration benefits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, July.
    3. Larson, Donald F. & Ambrosi, Philippe & Dinar, Ariel & Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Entler, Rebecca, 2008. "Carbon markets, institutions, policies, and research," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4761, The World Bank.
    4. van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., 2004. "Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 385-393, April.
    5. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2004. "Evolutionary Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth, Environmental Quality and Resource Scarcity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-048/3, Tinbergen Institute.

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