IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envira/v23y1991i7p987-1005.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting State and Local Population Growth with Limited Data: The Use of Employment—Migration Relationships and Trends in Vital Rates

Author

Listed:
  • M J Greenwood

    (Department of Economics and Center for Economic Analysis, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA)

  • G L Hunt

    (Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA)

Abstract

Long-term forecasts of state and local population are required for a variety of reasons, but frequently these forecasts or projections are not tied to economic activity, and the migration component of population change is commonly treated in an unsatisfactory fashion. In this paper, growth of state and local population is related to the area's net natural increase and to its net migration, which must be inferred because of lack of data. In turn, net migration is related to the growth of national employment and to the growth of regional civilian and military employment. The model is estimated for two regions, the El Paso, TX, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) and the State of New Mexico. Several statistical problems arise because of the limited number of available time-series observations. Fully dynamic historical simulations track the population quite closely, in one case never differing from the actual value by more than 1.17% and in the other never differing by more than 1.36%.

Suggested Citation

  • M J Greenwood & G L Hunt, 1991. "Forecasting State and Local Population Growth with Limited Data: The Use of Employment—Migration Relationships and Trends in Vital Rates," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 23(7), pages 987-1005, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:23:y:1991:i:7:p:987-1005
    DOI: 10.1068/a230987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a230987
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/a230987?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
    2. Hunt, Gary L. & Greenwood, Michael J., 1985. "Econometrically accounting for identities and restrictions in models of interregional migration : Further Thoughts," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 605-614, November.
    3. Greenwood, Michael J & Hunt, Gary L, 1984. "Migration and Interregional Employment Redistribution in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 957-969, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    2. Mazzocchi, Mario, 2006. "Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2191-2205, May.
    3. Keuzenkamp, Hugo A. & Barten, Anton P., 1995. "Rejection without falsification on the history of testing the homogeneity condition in the theory of consumer demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 103-127, May.
    4. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, 2012. "Quantity Versus Shares in Estimating Demand Systems," Working Papers 124575, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Tommy Lundgren, 2009. "Environmental Protection and Impact on Adjacent Economies: Evidence from the Swedish Mountain Region," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 513-532, September.
    6. van Heeswijk, B J & de Boer, P M C & Harkema, R, 1993. "A Dynamic Specification of an AIDS Import Allocation Model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 57-73.
    7. Berbée, Paul & Brücker, Herbert & Garloff, Alfred & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2022. "The labor demand effects of refugee immigration: Evidence from a natural experiment," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-069, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Moschini, G. & Moro, D., 1993. "A Food demand System for Canada," Papers 1-93, Gouvernement du Canada - Agriculture Canada.
    9. Lara Agostini & Federico Caviggioli & Francesco Galati & Barbara Bigliardi, 2020. "A social perspective of knowledge-based innovation: mobility and agglomeration. Introduction to the special section," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 1309-1323, October.
    10. repec:rri:wpaper:200411 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Holt, Matthew T., 2002. "Inverse demand systems and choice of functional form," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 117-142, January.
    12. Gundlach, Erich & Schmidt, Klaus-Dieter, 1985. "Das amerikanische Beschäftigungswunder: Was sich daraus lernen läßt," Kiel Discussion Papers 109, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Beth Mitchneck & David A. Plane, 1995. "Migration and the Quasi-labor Market in Russia," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 18(3), pages 267-288, July.
    14. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    15. David K. Foot & William J. Milne, 1989. "Multiregional Estimation of Gross Internal Migration Flows," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 12(1), pages 29-43, April.
    16. S. Selvanathan, 1987. "How Similar are OECD Consumers?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-08, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    17. Richards, Timothy J. & Patterson, Paul M., 1998. "New Varieties and the Returns to Commodity Promotion: Washington Fuji Apples," Working Papers 28541, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
    18. George TRIDIMAS, 2006. "The economics and empirics of the allocation of public consumption expenditures," Departmental Working Papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    19. Henrik Hansen & Derek Headey, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Time Series Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 877-896.
    20. Tian, Guoqiang & Chipman, John S., 1989. "A Class of Dynamic Demand Systems," MPRA Paper 41387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, 2020. "Demand systems with heteroscedastic disturbances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1913-1921, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:23:y:1991:i:7:p:987-1005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.