IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envira/v17y1985i12p1637-1652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lognormal Estimates of Macroregional City-Size Distributions, 1950–1970

Author

Listed:
  • L De Cola

    (Department of Geology and Geography and Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV USA 26506)

Abstract

A three-parameter lognormal model is used to estimate the city-size distribution of the world and of eight UN-defined macroregions. The model is found to fit the data better than the Pareto function, and to provide a powerful means of comparing distributions among regions. Although system concentration (measured by the standard deviation index) is relatively stable in Europe and in the world at large, it is decreasing in North America, Africa, and East Asia, and increasing in Latin America and South Asia. Cities in the 250000–500000 size class are somewhat more numerous than predicted, suggesting the possibility of some kind of ‘optimum’. The theory of extreme values is used to predict the most populous city of a region and to compare predictions with actual maxima, demonstrating that the largest cities in the world are well within systematic possibilities.

Suggested Citation

  • L De Cola, 1985. "Lognormal Estimates of Macroregional City-Size Distributions, 1950–1970," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(12), pages 1637-1652, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:17:y:1985:i:12:p:1637-1652
    DOI: 10.1068/a171637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a171637
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/a171637?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wheaton, William C & Shishido, Hisanobu, 1981. "Urban Concentration, Agglomeration Economies, and the Level of Economic Development," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 17-30, October.
    2. Okabe, Atsuyuki, 1979. "An expected rank-size rule : A theoretical relationship between the rank size rule and city size distributions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, February.
    3. Vining, Daniel R, Jr, 1976. "Autocorrelated Growth Rates and the Pareto Law: A Further Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 369-380, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eric Sheppard, 1982. "City Size Distributions and Spatial Economic Change," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 7(2), pages 127-151, October.
    2. Bar-El, Raphael & Parr, John B., 2002. "From metropolis to metropolis-based region: the case of Tel-Aviv," ERSA conference papers ersa02p392, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Henderson, Vernon, 2000. "How urban concentration affects economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2326, The World Bank.
    4. Marcelo Resende, 2004. "Gibrat's Law and the Growth of Cities in Brazil: A Panel Data Investigation," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(8), pages 1537-1549, July.
    5. J. Vernon Henderson, Zmarak Shalizi, and Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Geography and development," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 81-105, January.
    6. Clémentine Cottineau, 2022. "What do analyses of city size distributions have in common?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(3), pages 1439-1463, March.
    7. Duranton, Gilles, 2002. "City size distributions as a consequence of the growth process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20065, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Getu Hailu & B. James Deaton, 2016. "Agglomeration Effects in Ontario’s Dairy Farming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1055-1073.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran & Andrzej Cieślik, 2021. "The distribution of city sizes in Turkey: A failure of Zipf’s law due to concavity," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 1702-1719, October.
    10. Goerlich, Francisco José & Mas, Matilde, 2008. "Pautas de localización de la población a lo largo del siglo XX [Population localization patterns along the XX century]," MPRA Paper 15824, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    11. Maurice Catin & Christophe Van Huffel, 2003. "Concentration urbaine et industrialisation," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 121(1), pages 87-107.
    12. Michel DIMOU, 2008. "Urbanisation, Agglomeration Effects And Regional Inequality : An Introduction," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 7-12.
    13. Brueckner, Jan K. & Lall, Somik V., 2015. "Cities in Developing Countries," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1399-1455, Elsevier.
    14. George C. Petrakos, 1992. "Urban Concentration and Agglomeration Economies: Re-examining the Relationship," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 29(8), pages 1219-1229, December.
    15. Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-Francois Thisse, 2001. "Labor Mobility and Economic Geography," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-99, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    16. Xiangchun Lu & Komei Sasaki, 2008. "Urbanization process and land use policy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 769-786, December.
    17. Rosanna Salvia & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Jesús Rodrigo-Comino & Giovanni Quaranta, 2020. "In-Between ‘Smart’ Urban Growth and ‘Sluggish’ Rural Development? Reframing Population Dynamics in Greece, 1940–2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.
    18. Eaton, Jonathan & Eckstein, Zvi, 1997. "Cities and growth: Theory and evidence from France and Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 443-474, August.
    19. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2004. "Agglomeration and economic geography," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 58, pages 2563-2608, Elsevier.
    20. Pholo Bala, Alain, 2009. "Urban concentration and economic growth: checking for specific regional effects," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2009038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:17:y:1985:i:12:p:1637-1652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.