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Ecological Fallacies and the Analysis of Areal Census Data

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  • S Openshaw

    (Department of Geography, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, England)

Abstract

In many countries census data are only reported for areal units and not at the individual level. This custom raises the spectre of ecological fallacy problems. In this paper, a 10% sample census (from the United Kingdom) and individual census data (from Italy) are used to provide an empirical demonstration of the nature and magnitude of these problems. It is concluded that ecological fallacy effects are endemic to areal census data, although their magnitude is perhaps not as large as might have been expected. The principal difficulty is that there is at present no way of predicting in advance the degree of severity likely to be associated with particular variables and particular techniques. Finally, a suggestion is made concerning how the potentially serious practical consequences can be reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • S Openshaw, 1984. "Ecological Fallacies and the Analysis of Areal Census Data," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 16(1), pages 17-31, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:16:y:1984:i:1:p:17-31
    DOI: 10.1068/a160017
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher S. Fowler & Nathan Frey & David C. Folch & Nicholas Nagle & Seth Spielman, 2018. "Who are the people in my neighborhood? The �contextual fallacy� of measuring individual context with census geographies," Working Papers 18-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Lansley, Guy & Longley, Paul, 2016. "Deriving age and gender from forenames for consumer analytics," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 271-278.
    3. Bharathi, Naveen & Malghan, Deepak & Mishra, Sumit & Rahman, Andaleeb, 2018. "Spatial Segregation, Multi-scale Diversity, and Public Goods," SocArXiv 4fq8z, Center for Open Science.
    4. Michael Reibel, 2007. "Geographic Information Systems and Spatial Data Processing in Demography: a Review," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 601-618, December.
    5. Michal Bernard Pietrzak, 2014. "Redefining The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem Within Spatial Econometrics, The Case Of The Aggregation Problem," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 9(3), pages 131-151, September.
    6. Li, Qingquan & Zhang, Tong & Wang, Handong & Zeng, Zhe, 2011. "Dynamic accessibility mapping using floating car data: a network-constrained density estimation approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 379-393.
    7. Michal Bernard Pietrzak, 2014. "Redefining The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem Within Spatial Econometrics, The Case Of The Scale Problem," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 9(2), pages 111-132, June.
    8. Keshkamat, S.S. & Kooiman, A. & van Maarseveen, M.F.A.M. & der Veen, A. van & Zuidgeest, M.H.P., 2012. "A boundary object for scale selection — Moderating differences and synergising understanding," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 15-24.
    9. Lee, Jaeyoung & Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Jiang, Ximiao, 2014. "Development of zone system for macro-level traffic safety analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-21.
    10. Lekkas, Peter & Howard, Natasha J & Stankov, Ivana & daniel, mark & Paquet, Catherine, 2019. "A Longitudinal Typology of Neighbourhood-level Social Fragmentation: A Finite Mixture Model Approach," SocArXiv 56x9c, Center for Open Science.
    11. Michal Bernard Pietrzak, 2014. "The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem – Analysis Of Correlation And Regression," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 113-131, December.
    12. Norton, Daniel & Hynes, Stephen, 2018. "Estimating the Benefits of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in Atlantic Member States: A Spatial Value Transfer Approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 82-94.
    13. DUJARDIN, Claire & lorant, VINCENT & THOMAS, Isabelle, 2013. "Self-assessed health of elderly people in Brussels: does the built environment matter?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Lee, Jaeyoung & Siddiqui, Chowdhury & Choi, Keechoo, 2013. "Geographical unit based analysis in the context of transportation safety planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 62-75.
    15. Ian Philips & Graham Clarke & David Watling, 2017. "A Fine Grained Hybrid Spatial Microsimulation Technique for Generating Detailed Synthetic Individuals from Multiple Data Sources: An Application To Walking And Cycling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 167-200.
    16. repec:ijm:journl:v109:y:2017:i:1:p:167-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Andresen, Martin A., 2011. "Estimating the probability of local crime clusters: The impact of immediate spatial neighbors," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 394-404.
    18. Gandhi Pawitan, 2009. "Spatial distribution based on semivariogram model," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 27-35, April.
    19. Wiedenhofer, Dominik & Lenzen, Manfred & Steinberger, Julia K., 2013. "Energy requirements of consumption: Urban form, climatic and socio-economic factors, rebounds and their policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 696-707.
    20. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A., 2019. "Changing spatial patterns of residential burglary and the crime drop: The need for spatial data signatures," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 90-100.
    21. Yolande Pottie-Sherman & Rima Wilkes, 2017. "Does Size Really Matter? On the Relationship between Immigrant Group Size and Anti-Immigrant Prejudice," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 218-250, March.
    22. Tamás Dusek, 2005. "The modifiable areal unit problem in regional economics," ERSA conference papers ersa05p357, European Regional Science Association.
    23. Yiming Wang, 2011. "White flight in Los Angeles county, 1960–1990: a model of fuzzy tipping," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 111-129, August.
    24. Qiurong Xu & Xinqi Zheng & Chunxiao Zhang, 2018. "Quantitative Analysis of the Determinants Influencing Urban Expansion: A Case Study in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    25. Lorien Rice & Mark Henderson & Margaret Hunter, 2017. "Neighborhood Priority or Desegregation Plans? A Spatial Analysis of Voting on San Francisco’s Student Assignment System," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(6), pages 805-832, December.

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