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Can we Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?

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  • Ian R. G. Wilson

    (Queensland Department of Education, Training and the Arts, Australia.)

Abstract

Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years. Historical data shows that seven out of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of greatest asymmetry in the Sun's motion about the Solar System's centre-of-mass, or 11 years ± one year after this event. The Sun is currently experiencing a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass. Evidence is presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another Indian mega-famine in 2018–20. While the chance of such a catastrophic event occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially devastating threat.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian R. G. Wilson, 2009. "Can we Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 20(1), pages 11-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:11-24
    DOI: 10.1260/095830509787689132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. U. Neff & S. J. Burns & A. Mangini & M. Mudelsee & D. Fleitmann & A. Matter, 2001. "Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6835), pages 290-293, May.
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