IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/engenv/v14y2003i2-3p327-350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?

Author

Listed:
  • Theodor Landscheidt

Abstract

Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the secular Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove ‘skilful’ as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct, as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodor Landscheidt, 2003. "New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 14(2-3), pages 327-350, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:14:y:2003:i:2-3:p:327-350
    DOI: 10.1260/095830503765184646
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1260/095830503765184646
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1260/095830503765184646?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter T. Doran & John C. Priscu & W. Berry Lyons & John E. Walsh & Andrew G. Fountain & Diane M. McKnight & Daryl L. Moorhead & Ross A. Virginia & Diana H. Wall & Gary D. Clow & Christian H. Fritsen &, 2002. "Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6871), pages 517-520, January.
    2. U. Neff & S. J. Burns & A. Mangini & M. Mudelsee & D. Fleitmann & A. Matter, 2001. "Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6835), pages 290-293, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shani, Amir & Arad, Boaz, 2014. "Climate change and tourism: Time for environmental skepticism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 82-85.
    2. Ye Tian & Dominik Fleitmann & Qiong Zhang & Lijuan Sha & Jasper. A. Wassenburg & Josefine Axelsson & Haiwei Zhang & Xianglei Li & Jun Hu & Hanying Li & Liang Zhao & Yanjun Cai & Youfeng Ning & Hai Che, 2023. "Holocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Lans, Cheryl, 2012. "Money and the epistemologies of ignorance concerning climate change," MPRA Paper 62147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ian R. G. Wilson, 2009. "Can we Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 20(1), pages 11-24, January.
    5. Bas van Geel & Peter A. Ziegler, 2013. "Ipcc Underestimates the Sun's Role in Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 24(3-4), pages 431-453, June.
    6. Mauro Guglielmin & Nicoletta Cannone, 2012. "A permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 177-195, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:14:y:2003:i:2-3:p:327-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.