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Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU C02 Emissions Model

Author

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  • J. M. Reilly
  • J. A. Edmonds
  • R. H. Gardner
  • A. L. Brenkert

Abstract

Future levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are an important determinant of the severity and timing of global warming due to elevated levels of radiatively active (greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere. Many studies have addressed this issue,. These include Rotty (1977), Keeling and Bacastow (1977), Siegenthaler and Oeschger (1978), JASON (1979), Marchetti (1980), IIASA in Haefele (1981), Lovins (1981), Hamm (1982), Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), and Reister and Rotty (1983). Ausubel and Nordhaus (1983) provide a recent critical review of emissions forecasts with a focus on methodological development, citing the advance in methodological sophistication leading to improvements in understanding long-term patterns of energy use and their relationship to CO2 emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • J. M. Reilly & J. A. Edmonds & R. H. Gardner & A. L. Brenkert, 1987. "Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU C02 Emissions Model," The Energy Journal, , vol. 8(3), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:8:y:1987:i:3:p:1-30
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-1
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    1. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    2. Marcucci, Adriana & Panos, Evangelos & Kypreos, Socrates & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2019. "Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 °C climate target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 239-251.
    3. McJeon, Haewon C. & Clarke, Leon & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & Hackbarth, Andrew & Bryant, Benjamin P. & Lempert, Robert J., 2011. "Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 619-631, July.
    4. Boone, Laurence & Hall, Stephen & Kemball-Cook, David, 1996. "Endogenous technical progress in fossil fuel demand: The case of France," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-155, April.
    5. Keller, Klaus & Miltich, Louise I. & Robinson, Alexander & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 9321, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Gjerde, Jon & Grepperud, Sverre & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1999. "Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 289-317, August.
    7. Eom, Jiyong & Calvin, Kate & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae & Kim, Sonny & Kopp, Robert & Kyle, Page & Luckow, Patrick & Moss, Richard & Patel, Pralit & Wise, Marshall, 2012. "Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 325-338.
    8. Hall, Darwin C. & Behl, Richard J., 2006. "Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 442-465, May.
    9. Scott, Michael J. & Daly, Don S. & Zhou, Yuyu & Rice, Jennie S. & Patel, Pralit L. & McJeon, Haewon C. & Page Kyle, G. & Kim, Son H. & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E., 2014. "Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integr," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 22-33.
    10. Shao, Tianming & Pan, Xunzhang & Li, Xiang & Zhou, Sheng & Zhang, Shu & Chen, Wenying, 2022. "China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. DALE S. Rothman & DUANE Chapman, 1993. "A Critical Analysis Of Climate Change Policy Research," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 88-98, January.
    12. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1997. "Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Energy? An Econometric Analysis," Working Papers 127834, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Scott, Michael J. & Sands, Ronald D. & Edmonds, Jae & Liebetrau, Albert M. & Engel, David W., 1999. "Uncertainty in integrated assessment models: modeling with MiniCAM 1.0," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(14), pages 855-879, December.
    14. Miftakhova, Alena, 2021. "Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    15. Peterson, Sonja, 2004. "The contribution of economics to the analysis of climate change and uncertainty: a survey of approaches and findings," Kiel Working Papers 1212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    IEA/ORAU CO2 emissions model; climate change; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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