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Estimating Hourly Electric Load with Generalized Least Square Procedures

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Listed:
  • Chi-Keung Woo
  • Philip Hanser
  • Nate Toyama

Abstract

Although electricity demand receives much attention in the empiri- cal literature (see Taylor (1975) and EPRI (1982b) for excellent surveys on the topic), hourly load demand analysis has only recently begun. Notable contributions are a series of studies sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI (1977. 1979a, 1979b, 1981a, 19816. 1982a) and Platt (1983)). These studies estimate load curve models for regions of the United States. Unfortunately, from a utility perspective, the empirical results presented in these studies are not directly applicable. Further, because the data used in these studies are not generally available at the geographic level of a utility service area, applying their methodology is problematic. This paper presents a practical method for an electric utility to produce an hourly load curve model similar in overall framework to these studies. Our procedure is innovative in that it produces statistically efficient estimates, which the above papers do not. We also demonstrate a method that uses supplementary forecasts to enhance the forecasting performance of the hourly load model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Keung Woo & Philip Hanser & Nate Toyama, 1986. "Estimating Hourly Electric Load with Generalized Least Square Procedures," The Energy Journal, , vol. 7(2), pages 153-170, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:7:y:1986:i:2:p:153-170
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harlan D. Platt, 1983. "An Integrated Approach to Electricity Demand Forecasting," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    2. R. Bruce Billings, 1982. "Specification of Block Rate Price Variables in Demand Models," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 386-394.
    3. Michael R. Veall, 1983. "Industrial Electricity Demand and the Hopkinson Rate: An Application of the Extreme Value Distribution," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 427-440, Autumn.
    4. Lester D. Taylor, 1975. "The Demand for Electricity: A Survey," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(1), pages 74-110, Spring.
    5. Joseph V. Terza & W. P. Welch, 1982. "Estimating Demand under Block Rates: Electricity and Water," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(2), pages 181-188.
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