IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v43y2022i2p17-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Baturay Çalci
  • Benjamin D. Leibowicz
  • Jonathan F. Bard

Abstract

Strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth, especially in Asia, could increasingly motivate gas infrastructure development in North America. Nevertheless, opposition to new gas infrastructure is formidable in some of the U.S. states and Canadian provinces that are well positioned to supply LNG to the Asian market. In this paper, we investigate the combined effects of LNG demand growth and export infrastructure restrictions on North American natural gas markets through 2050. To do so, we build a mixed complementarity model with endogenous capacity investments. It is parameterized using publicly available data sources. Our results show that even if new export terminals cannot be constructed on the West Coast, LNG exports largely shift to other regions rather than suffer an overall decline. Increasing external demand for LNG puts upward pressure on regional prices in North America, and directs production and pipeline flows toward the regions that export LNG.

Suggested Citation

  • Baturay Çalci & Benjamin D. Leibowicz & Jonathan F. Bard, 2022. "North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(2), pages 17-40, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:2:p:17-40
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.2.bcal
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.43.2.bcal
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.43.2.bcal?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous production capacity investment in natural gas market equilibrium models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 503-506.
    2. Steven A. Gabriel & Supat Kiet & Jifang Zhuang, 2005. "A Mixed Complementarity-Based Equilibrium Model of Natural Gas Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 799-818, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2019. "Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 666-676.
    2. Devine, Mel T. & Bertsch, Valentin, 2018. "Examining the benefits of load shedding strategies using a rolling-horizon stochastic mixed complementarity equilibrium model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 643-658.
    3. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2016. "Multiplicity of equilibria in conjectural variations models of natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 646-656.
    4. Bertsch, Valentin & Devine, Mel, 2019. "The Role of Demand Response in Mitigating Market Power — A Quantitative Analysis Using a Stochastic Market Equilibrium Model," Papers WP635, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Mel T. Devine & Valentin Bertsch, 2023. "The role of demand response in mitigating market power: a quantitative analysis using a stochastic market equilibrium model," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 555-597, June.
    6. Lorenczik, Stefan & Malischek, Raimund & Trüby, Johannes, 2017. "Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 605-618.
    7. Veronika Grimm & Lars Schewe & Martin Schmidt & Gregor Zöttl, 2019. "A multilevel model of the European entry-exit gas market," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 89(2), pages 223-255, April.
    8. Böttger, T. & Grimm, V. & Kleinert, T. & Schmidt, M., 2022. "The cost of decoupling trade and transport in the European entry-exit gas market with linear physics modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1095-1111.
    9. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    10. Wang, Xiaolin & Qiu, Yangyang & Chen, Jun & Hu, Xiangping, 2022. "Evaluating natural gas supply security in China: An exhaustible resource market equilibrium model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Yang, Dong & Zhang, Lingge & Luo, Meifeng & Li, Feng, 2020. "Does shipping market affect international iron ore trade?– An equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Hernán Gómez-Villarreal & Miguel Carrión & Ruth Domínguez, 2019. "Optimal Management of Combined-Cycle Gas Units with Gas Storage under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-29, December.
    13. Csercsik, Dávid & Hubert, Franz & Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á., 2019. "Modeling transfer profits as externalities in a cooperative game-theoretic model of natural gas networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 355-365.
    14. Mendelevitch, Roman, 2013. "The Role of CO2-EOR for the Development of a CCTS Infrastructure in the North Sea Region: A Techno-Economic Model and Application," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79950, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Tang, Yanyan & Zhang, Qi & Li, Yaoming & Li, Hailong & Pan, Xunzhang & Mclellan, Benjamin, 2019. "The social-economic-environmental impacts of recycling retired EV batteries under reward-penalty mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Massol, Olivier & Rifaat, Omer, 2018. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 186-211.
    17. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    18. Riepin, I. & Müsgens, F., 2019. "Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1976, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Holz, Franziska & Brauers, Hanna & Richter, Philipp M. & Roobeek, Thorsten, 2017. "Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 520-529.
    20. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:2:p:17-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.