IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v43y2022i1p215-239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparing the Risk Spillover from Oil and Gas to Investment Grade and High-yield Bonds through Optimal Copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Md Lutfur Rahman
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
  • Gazi Salah Uddin
  • Anupam Dutta

Abstract

This paper compares the tail dependence and risk spillovers from the oil and gas to high-yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) bond markets. We use time-varying optimal copula framework to examine the dependence and further quantify upside and downside risk spillovers. We also explore how energy futures can be used to hedge risk of HY and IG bond portfolios. Our results show that the bond returns are more sensitive to risk shocks in the oil market compared to gas market. We find both negative and positive tail dependence between the bond and energy pairs and the relationship is stronger during the oil-crunch period. The dependence however is asymmetric across the tails. Finally, compared to oil futures, gas futures are found to be better hedge for the bond investment. These results can help in managing portfolio risk and designing optimal asset allocation strategies. These might also assist in formulating policies and regulations to manage the effects of cross-market risk transmissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Lutfur Rahman & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Gazi Salah Uddin & Anupam Dutta, 2022. "Comparing the Risk Spillover from Oil and Gas to Investment Grade and High-yield Bonds through Optimal Copulas," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(1), pages 215-239, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:1:p:215-239
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.1.mrah
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.43.1.mrah
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.43.1.mrah?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    2. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    4. Janusz Brzeszczyński & Binam Ghimire & Tooraj Jamasb & Graham McIntosh, 2019. "Socially Responsible Investment and Market Performance: The Case of Energy and Resource Companies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(5), pages 17-72, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    3. Eydam, Ulrich & Leupold, Florian, 2024. "What is it good for? On the inflationary effects of military conflicts," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    5. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2020. "Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Arthur J. Lin & Hai-Yen Chang, 2020. "Volatility Transmission from Equity, Bulk Shipping, and Commodity Markets to Oil ETF and Energy Fund—A GARCH-MIDAS Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Wang, Fangzhi & Liao, Hua, 2022. "Unexpected economic growth and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 287-357.
    11. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör, 2021. "Co-movement of commodity price indexes and energy price index: a wavelet coherence approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    14. Raghavan, Mala, 2020. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Jochen H. F. Güntner & Katharina Linsbauer, 2018. "The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1617-1644, October.
    16. Gupta, Rangan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 206-214.
    17. Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska & Kentaka Aruga, 2020. "Energy Prices and COVID-Immunity: The Case of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices in the US and Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Equity premium prediction using the price of crude oil: Uncovering the nonlinear predictive impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    20. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:1:p:215-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.