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On Bond Returns in a Time of Climate Change

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  • Alessandro Ravina

Abstract

The study of the financial repercussions of low-carbon policy has focused mainly on stocks, leaving bonds out of the picture. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of low-carbon policy upon European bond returns. This is done by extending the Fama and French two factor model for bonds with an EU-ETS participation factor: GMC (Green minus Carbon). This paper makes four contributions. Firstly, it provides a statistically highly significant measure of the sensitivity of bond portfolio returns to the GMC factor. Secondly, it shows the presence of a green premium in the European bond market in between 2008 and 2018. Thirdly, evidence is found that the addition of an environmental factor improves the performance of the original model. Fourthly, the carbon stress test put forward is able to indicate the effects of a plausible but more severe average EU-ETS carbon price on bond returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Ravina, 2022. "On Bond Returns in a Time of Climate Change," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(1), pages 139-160, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:1:p:139-160
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.1.arav
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gernot Wagner & Martin L. Weitzman, 2016. "Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10725.
    2. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Louis Daumas, 2024. "Financial stability, stranded assets and the low‐carbon transition – A critical review of the theoretical and applied literatures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 601-716, July.

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