IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v41y2020i5p213-238.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts: Is the Crowd Wiser?

Author

Listed:
  • Adrian Fernandez-Perez
  • Alexandre Garel
  • Ivan Indriawan

Abstract

This paper examines the usefulness of crowdsourced relative to professional forecasts for natural gas storage changes. We find that crowdsourced forecasts are less accurate than professional forecasts on average. We investigate possible reasons for this inferior performance and find evidence of a greater divergence of opinions and a lower incorporation of publicly available information among crowd analysts. We further show that crowdsourced consensus forecast does not influence the market’s expectation of gas storage changes beyond what is already contained in professional consensus forecast, suggesting that crowdsourced forecasts provide little new information. Overall, our results indicate that the incremental usefulness of crowdsourced forecasts for gas market stakeholders is very limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Alexandre Garel & Ivan Indriawan, 2020. "Natural Gas Storage Forecasts: Is the Crowd Wiser?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(5), pages 213-238, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:5:p:213-238
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.41.5.afer?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen Gu & Alexander Kurov, 2018. "What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1079-1096, September.
    2. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    3. Mariassunta Giannetti & Yishay Yafeh, 2012. "Do Cultural Differences Between Contracting Parties Matter? Evidence from Syndicated Bank Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 365-383, February.
    4. Scott C. Linn & Zhen Zhu, 2004. "Natural gas prices and the gas storage report: Public news and volatility in energy futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 283-313, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tom Coupé & Valérie Smeets & Frédéric Warzynski, 2006. "Incentives, Sorting and Productivity along the Career: Evidence from a Sample of Top Economists," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 137-167, April.
    2. Shi, Wei & Tang, Yinuo, 2015. "Cultural similarity as in-group favoritism: The impact of religious and ethnic similarities on alliance formation and announcement returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 32-46.
    3. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    4. Aleksei Smirnov & Egor Starkov, 2019. "Timing of predictions in dynamic cheap talk: experts vs. quacks," ECON - Working Papers 334, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "What lies beneath the euro's effect on financial integration? Currency risk, legal harmonization, or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 75-88, May.
    6. Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2023. "Do peer effects matter in bank risk? Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Mary J. Benner, 2010. "Securities Analysts and Incumbent Response to Radical Technological Change: Evidence from Digital Photography and Internet Telephony," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 42-62, February.
    8. Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd & Slangen, Arjen & Maseland, Robbert & Onrust, Marjolijn, 2014. "The impact of home–host cultural distance on foreign affiliate sales: The moderating role of cultural variation within host countries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1638-1646.
    9. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
    10. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    11. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    12. Vesa Pursiainen, 2022. "Cultural Biases in Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 163-211, February.
    13. Bellucci, Andrea & Borisov, Alexander & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2013. "Do banks price discriminate spatially? Evidence from small business lending in local credit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4183-4197.
    14. Boris Groysberg & Jeffrey T. Polzer & Hillary Anger Elfenbein, 2011. "Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth: How High-Status Individuals Decrease Group Effectiveness," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 722-737, June.
    15. Carole Gresse & Laurence Porteu de la Morandière, 2015. "Rising and Senior Stars in European Financial Analyst Rankings: The Talented and the Famous," Working Papers 01, Groupe ESC Pau, Research Department, revised Jan 2015.
    16. L. Bottazzi & M. Da Rin & T. Hellmann, 2007. "The Importance of Trust for Investment: Evidence from Venture Capital," Working Papers 612, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    17. Cornaggia, Jess & Cornaggia, Kimberly J. & Xia, Han, 2016. "Revolving doors on Wall Street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 400-419.
    18. Gil Aharoni & Eti Einhorn & Qi Zeng, 2017. "Under weighting of Private Information by Top Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 551-590, June.
    19. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2015. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-81.
    20. Omokolade Akinsomi & Yener Coskun & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2016. "Impact of Volatility and Equity Market Uncertainty on Herd Behavior: Evidence from UK REITs," Working Papers 201688, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:5:p:213-238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.