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Do Jumps and Co-jumps Improve Volatility Forecasting of Oil and Currency Markets?

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  • Fredj Jawadi
  • Waël Louhichi
  • Hachmi Ben Ameur
  • Zied Ftiti

Abstract

This paper aims at modeling and forecasting volatility in both oil and USD exchange rate markets using high frequency data. We test whether extreme co-move-ments (co-jumps) between these markets, as well as intraday unexpected news, help to improve volatility forecasting or not. Accordingly, we propose different extensions of Corsi (2009)’s model by including co-jumps and news. Our analysis provides two interesting findings. First, we find that both markets exhibit significant co-jumps driven by unexpected macroeconomic news. Second, we show that our model outperforms Corsi (2009)’s model and provides more accurate forecasts. In particular, while co-jumps constitute a key variable in forecasting oil price volatility, the unexpected news is relevant to forecasts of USD exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredj Jawadi & Waël Louhichi & Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti, 2019. "Do Jumps and Co-jumps Improve Volatility Forecasting of Oil and Currency Markets?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2_suppl), pages 131-156, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:2_suppl:p:131-156
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI2.fjaw
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    1. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2011. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 69-76, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cui, Xin & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yao, Shouyu & Wu, Yiyao, 2022. "Positive information shocks, investor behavior and stock price crash risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 493-518.
    2. Louhichi, Waël & Ftiti, Zied & Ameur, Hachmi Ben, 2021. "Measuring the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak: Evidence from the main cluster countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Vincenzo Candila & Denis Maximov & Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev & Tomonobu Senjyu & Nicole Tryndina, 2021. "On the Relationship between Oil and Exchange Rates of Oil-Exporting and Oil-Importing Countries: From the Great Recession Period to the COVID-19 Era," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Oguzhan Cepni, Duc Khuong Nguyen, and Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "News Media and Attention Spillover across Energy Markets: A Powerful Predictor of Crude Oil Futures Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    5. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures market: Which structural change-based HAR models have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Ftiti, Zied & Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Louhichi, Waël, 2021. "Does non-fundamental news related to COVID-19 matter for stock returns? Evidence from Shanghai stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Fredj Jawadi & Mohamed Sellami, 2022. "On the effect of oil price in the context of Covid‐19," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3924-3933, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Oil price; U.S. dollar exchange rate; Co-jumps; Forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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