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Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates

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  • Mohamad B. Karaki

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on U.S. state-level unemployment rates. First, using a test of symmetry, I evaluate whether the relationship between oil prices and state unemployment rates is symmetric. I find no evidence against the null of symmetry after accounting for data mining. Second, I use a symmetric structural VAR model to analyze the effect of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks on state unemployment. I find that an adverse supply shock triggers increases in unemployment, whereas a positive aggregate demand shock reduces the unemployment rate across most U.S. states. I also show that oil-specific demand shocks have little effect on state unemployment. Finally, I dig into the historical contribution of the various oil shocks to the changes in state unemployment rates during the shale boom period. I find that aggregate demand shocks contributed the most to the change of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(3), pages 25-50, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:39:y:2018:i:3:p:25-50
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
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    4. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
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    6. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks And Industrial Production: Is The Relationship Linear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 472-497, November.
    7. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2017. "Where do jobs go when oil prices drop?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 469-482.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil supply shocks; oil demand shocks; state unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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