IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v39y2018i3p25-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamad B. Karaki

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on U.S. state-level unemployment rates. First, using a test of symmetry, I evaluate whether the relationship between oil prices and state unemployment rates is symmetric. I find no evidence against the null of symmetry after accounting for data mining. Second, I use a symmetric structural VAR model to analyze the effect of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks on state unemployment. I find that an adverse supply shock triggers increases in unemployment, whereas a positive aggregate demand shock reduces the unemployment rate across most U.S. states. I also show that oil-specific demand shocks have little effect on state unemployment. Finally, I dig into the historical contribution of the various oil shocks to the changes in state unemployment rates during the shale boom period. I find that aggregate demand shocks contributed the most to the change of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(3), pages 25-50, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:39:y:2018:i:3:p:25-50
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    2. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    3. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
    4. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks And Industrial Production: Is The Relationship Linear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 472-497, November.
    5. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moshiri, Saeed & Bakhshi Moghaddam, Mohsen, 2018. "The effects of oil price shocks in a federation; The case of interregional trade and labour migration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 206-221.
    2. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    3. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. Xinheng Liu & Shuxian Li & Chengbo Fu & Xu Gong & Chen Fan, 2024. "The oil price plummeted in 2014–2015: Is there an effect on Chinese firms' labour investment?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 943-960, January.
    5. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    6. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    7. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan, 2024. "On transmission channels of energy prices and monetary policy shocks to household consumption: Evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Guy Assaker & Wassim Shahin, 2022. "What Drives Faculty Publication Citations in the Business Field? Empirical Results from an AACSB Middle Eastern Institution," Publications, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, November.
    9. Hwang, Inwook & Zhu, Xiaoyang, 2024. "State-dependent oil price shocks on inflation and the efficacy of inflation targeting regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Iman Cheratian & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Saleh Goltabar, 2019. "Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201931, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    12. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2024. "Oil price uncertainty shocks and the gender gap in U.S. unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Diab, Sara & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2023. "Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    14. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu & Abiodun O. Folawewo, 2020. "Investigating the relationship between changes in oil prices and unemployment rate in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    15. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Energy Depletion Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Zhang, Xi-Xi & Liu, Lu, 2020. "The time-varying causal relationship between oil price and unemployment: Evidence from the U.S. and China (EGY 118745)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    17. Long, Michael A. & Ritchie, Liesel A. & Stretesky, Paul B. & Sibley, Martha, 2024. "Perceptions of social disruption in communities that experienced induced seismicity from hydraulic fracturing in Colorado and Oklahoma, USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2020. "Monetary shocks and job flows: evidence from disaggregated data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2911-2936, June.
    19. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    20. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Koirala, Niraj Prasad & Ma, Xiaohan, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    22. Moghaddam, Mohsen Bakhshi & Lloyd-Ellis, Huw, 2022. "Heterogeneous effects of oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a nonparametric panel data model in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    23. Clement Oteng & Omowumi Iledare & Joshua Sebu, 2024. "Vulnerability of the Agricultural Commodity Markets in Ghana to Global Oil Price Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440231, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    2. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Serletis, Apostolos & Istiak, Khandokar, 2013. "Is the oil price–output relation asymmetric?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 10-20.
    4. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2015. "The effects of oil price shocks on job reallocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 95-113.
    5. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    6. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
    7. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Zeina Alsalman & Ana Maria Herrera, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stock Market: Do Sign and Size Matter?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(3), pages 171-188, July.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Karl Pinno & Apostolos Serletis, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 191-216, July.
    11. Dong Kim, 2012. "What is an oil shock? Panel data evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 121-143, August.
    12. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    13. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    15. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    16. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
    17. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
    19. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2015. "Oil price shocks and stock markets: testing for non-linearity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1079-1102, May.
    20. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2017. "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1747-1776, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil supply shocks; oil demand shocks; state unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:39:y:2018:i:3:p:25-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.