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The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making

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  • Axel Pierru
  • Walid Matar

Abstract

Since real oil price is positively correlated with real consumption and domestic income in Saudi Arabia, a risk premium needs to be considered when assessing the net present value of oil-related public investment projects. For projects generating additional oil exports, this risk premium quantifies the cost of increased dependence on oil revenues. For projects transforming oil into products whose prices are less correlated with the Saudi economy, it quantifies the benefit from reducing the aggregate risk. The value of this risk premium depends on expectations about future consumption and oil price. By considering alternative assumptions, we show that over a one-year horizon this risk premium could range between 1.3% and 5% of the expected oil-related cash flow, with higher premia for longer planning horizons. We discuss the implications of these calculations for energy-related public projects in Saudi Arabia and, more generally, for public decision-making in resource-rich countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Pierru & Walid Matar, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(2), pages 97-116, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:35:y:2014:i:2:p:97-116
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.2.5
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Blazquez, Lester C Hunt, and Baltasar Manzano, 2017. "Oil Subsidies and Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A General Equilibrium Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    2. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Jorge Blazquez & Jose Maria Martin-Moreno & Rafaela Perez & Jesus Ruiz, 2017. "Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(6), pages 161-176, November.
    4. Karanfil, Fatih & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "The opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. AlKathiri, Nader & Atalla, Tarek N. & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel, 2020. "Optimal policies for managing oil revenue stabilization funds: An illustration using Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Jorge Blazquez & Jose Maria Martin-Moreno & Rafaela Perez & Jesus Ruiz, 2017. "Fossil Fuel Price Shocks and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Spain," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    7. Axel Pierru & JamesL. Smith & Tamim Zamrik, 2018. "OPEC’s Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, March.
    8. Frédéric Cherbonnier & Christian Gollier, 2022. "Risk-adjusted Social Discount Rates," Post-Print hal-04012977, HAL.
    9. Hochman, Gal & Zilberman, David, 2015. "The political economy of OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 203-216.
    10. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2023. "Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the impact of oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government expenditures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 13-24.
    11. Sugra Humbatova, 2023. "The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 189-212, January.

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