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The Impact of OPEC Conference Outcomes on World Oil Prices 1984-2001

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  • Franz Wirl
  • Azra Kujundzic

Abstract

This paper investigates how far OPEC influences world oil markets. We ask the question: What is the impact of the decisions of the OPEC Conference, the supreme authority of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, on world oil prices? Extracting the Conference’s decisions from the communiques of fifty meetings from 1984-2001, these decisions were compared with the subsequent market developments. The result is that this impact is weak at best, and if at all then restricted to meetings recommending a price increase. However, the opposite claim (found in the literature) - the Conference is simply following the market - was also not supported either. Another interesting observation is the little autocorrelation between the decisions of the Conference. This suggests that the ministers’ decisions accommodate quickly and efficiently recent events.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Wirl & Azra Kujundzic, 2004. "The Impact of OPEC Conference Outcomes on World Oil Prices 1984-2001," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(1), pages 45-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:25:y:2004:i:1:p:45-62
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No1-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dermot Gately, 2001. "How Plausible is the Consensus Projection of Oil Below $25 and Persian Gulf Oil Capacity and Output Doubling by 2020?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-28.
    2. Franz Wirl, 1988. "Volatile Oil Prices: Two Propositions from Economics and “Realpolitik”," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 91-94, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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