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OPEC Production: The Missing Link

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  • James M. Griffin
  • Lawrence M. Vielhaber

Abstract

The future of oil depends critically on the production decisions of OPEC, which in turn depend on a variety of factors internal and external to the cartel. This paper uses a simulation of the world oil market to compute the payoff to OPEC members of alternative price and production profiles, focusing on the incentives to cooperate as well as to cheat. A “tit-for-tat†strategy by the Saudis significantly reduces the incentives to cheat, but the payoff for cheating is still positive for the smaller OPEC producers. Accordingly, prices well below the cartel's joint profit maximizing level seem most likely.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Griffin & Lawrence M. Vielhaber, 1994. "OPEC Production: The Missing Link," The Energy Journal, , vol. 15(1_suppl), pages 115-132, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:15:y:1994:i:1_suppl:p:115-132
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Rowse, 1988. "Does an Exhaustible Resource Usually Have Many Near-Optimal Depletion Paths?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 646-653.
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    Keywords

    Oil production; OPEC; oil prices;
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