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The Impact of an Oil Market Disruption on the Price of Oil: A Sensitivity Analysis

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  • William L. Helkie

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the change in the price of oil due to an exogenous change in the supply of oil. It first outlines the role of oil in large-scale econometric models and reviews the theory upon which the oil/energy sectors in these models are based. It then presents a small reduced form of the large-scale econometric model and discusses the model’s key parameters. The model is solved in order to determine the price of oil in the event of an oil supply disruption. The paper then discusses the sensitivity of the price effects of an oil market disruption to changes in the model’s parameters and compares this range of price estimates to the three major supply disruptions of the past two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • William L. Helkie, 1991. "The Impact of an Oil Market Disruption on the Price of Oil: A Sensitivity Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(4), pages 105-116, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:4:p:105-116
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bert G. Hickman, 1972. "Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick72-1.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772, April.
    3. Bert G. Hickman, 1972. "Index to "Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2"," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 1219-1225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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