IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v12y1991i4p105-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of an Oil Market Disruption on the Price of Oil: A Sensitivity Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • William L. Helkie

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the change in the price of oil due to an exogenous change in the supply of oil. It first outlines the role of oil in large-scale econometric models and reviews the theory upon which the oil/energy sectors in these models are based. It then presents a small reduced form of the large-scale econometric model and discusses the model’s key parameters. The model is solved in order to determine the price of oil in the event of an oil supply disruption. The paper then discusses the sensitivity of the price effects of an oil market disruption to changes in the model’s parameters and compares this range of price estimates to the three major supply disruptions of the past two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • William L. Helkie, 1991. "The Impact of an Oil Market Disruption on the Price of Oil: A Sensitivity Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(4), pages 105-116, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:4:p:105-116
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-7
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bert G. Hickman, 1972. "Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick72-1.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772, December.
    3. Bert G. Hickman, 1972. "Index to "Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2"," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 1219-1225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Jacques Mazier, 1975. "Les prix dans les modèles macroéconomiques appliqués : détermination implicite ou explicite," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(3), pages 447-477.
    3. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Margaret A. Walls, 1990. "Welfare Cost Of An Oil Import Fee," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 8(2), pages 176-189, April.
    5. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Coury, Tarek, 2003. "Trade openness, investment instability and terms-of-trade volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 285-306, December.
    6. Frank Asche & Odd Bjarte Nilsen & Ragnar Tveteras, 2008. "Natural Gas Demand in the European Household Sector," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(3), pages 27-46, July.
    7. Wirl, Franz, 2009. "OPEC as a political and economical entity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 399-408, December.
    8. Al-faris, Abdul-razak F., 1997. "Demand for oil products in the GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 55-61, January.
    9. Nazli Choucri & Christopher Heye & Michael Lynch, 1990. "Analyzing Oil Production in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Egypt," The Energy Journal, , vol. 11(3), pages 91-116, July.
    10. Huntington, Hillard G. & Barrios, James J. & Arora, Vipin, 2019. "Review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1129-1146, February.
    12. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2014. "Green power in Ontario: A dynamic model-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 859-870.
    13. Swait, Joffre & Eskeland, Gunnar S., 1995. "Travel mode substitution in Sao Paulo : estimates and implications for air pollution control," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1437, The World Bank.
    14. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "Natural gas demand in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 211-219, January.
    15. Caroline L. Freud & Christine I. Wallich, 1996. "The Welfare Effects of Raising Household Energy Prices in Poland," The Energy Journal, , vol. 17(1), pages 53-77, January.
    16. E. R. Berndt & G. C. Watkins, 1986. "Modeling Energy Demand: The Choice Between Input and Output Energy Measures," The Energy Journal, , vol. 7(2), pages 69-80, April.
    17. Yuquing Xing & Charles Kolstad, 2002. "Do Lax Environmental Regulations Attract Foreign Investment?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & José M. Mart'n-Moreno, 2006. "Oil shocks and the business cycle in Europe," Chapters, in: Carlos de Miguel & Xavier Labanderia & Baltasar Manzano (ed.), Economic Modelling of Climate Change and Energy Policies, chapter 12, pages 180-195, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Cleur, Eugene M. & Gambetta, Guido & Stagni, Anna & Sterbenz, Frederic, 1978. "Stochastic simulation and dynamic properties of the new version of the Italian model," MPRA Paper 23355, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 1978.
    20. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin Moreno, "undated". "Perturbaciones petroliferas y fluctuaciones agregadas," Studies on the Spanish Economy 134, FEDEA.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:4:p:105-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.