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Survival Analysis and European Union Decision-making

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  • Jonathan Golub

    (University of Reading, UK, j.s.golub@reading.ac.uk)

Abstract

Practitioners as well as scholars of European integration have for decades debated why it takes so long for the European Union (EU) to adopt legislation and how to improve decision-making efficiency. Four studies have investigated decision-making speed using survival analysis, a particularly appropriate quantitative technique. In this paper I show that all four studies suffer from serious methodological problems that render their conclusions unreliable. I then outline where work in this area should focus, and take an initial step in this direction by fitting a methodologically more appropriate survival model to my 2002 EU decision-making data set (Golub, 2002). Substantively, the results indicate that throughout the EU's history, for the most important types of legislation, qualified majority voting (QMV) and EU enlargement have increased decision-making speed, whereas empowerment of the European Parliament and extreme preference heterogeneity amongst decision-makers have decreased it. Theoretically, formal approaches — spatial models and especially coalition theory — do a better job of explaining these results than do perspectives that privilege informal norms.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Golub, 2007. "Survival Analysis and European Union Decision-making," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(2), pages 155-179, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:8:y:2007:i:2:p:155-179
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116507076428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tansey, Oisin & Koehler, Kevin & Schmotz, Alexander, 2017. "Ties to the rest: autocratic linkages and regime survival," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(9), pages 1221-1254.
    2. Jørgen Bølstad & James P. Cross, 2016. "Not all Treaties are Created Equal: The Effects of Treaty Changes on Legislative Efficiency in the EU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 793-808, July.
    3. Jan Hřích, 2014. "Typology of Forms of the Ordinary Legislative Procedure from the Point of View of the Degree of Supranationality in Decision-making [Typologie forem zvláštního legislativního postupu z hlediska mír," Současná Evropa, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 65-82.
    4. Madeleine O. Hosli & Běla Plechanovová & Serguei Kaniovski, 2018. "Vote Probabilities, Thresholds and Actor Preferences: Decision Capacity and the Council of the European Union," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 31-52, June.
    5. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2019. "Are World Leaders Loss Averse?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7763, CESifo.

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