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Reconsidering the Link between Incumbent Support and Pro-EU Opinion

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  • Leonard Ray

Abstract

According to some recent work on the attitudes towards European integration, supporters of incumbent parties are generally more pro-European than supporters of opposition parties. However, there are theoretical reasons to expect supporters of governing parties to be skeptical of European integration. Upon closer examination, the relationship between incumbent support and pro-European Union (EU) attitudes is a conditional one, which appears primarily when referendums are held on European topics or during European Parliament (EP) election years. At other times, there is a weak positive relationship between incumbent support and support for the current European Union, but a negative relationship with support for further unification. This suggests that supporters of incumbent parties are not natural advocates for reform of the institutions of the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Ray, 2003. "Reconsidering the Link between Incumbent Support and Pro-EU Opinion," European Union Politics, , vol. 4(3), pages 259-279, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:4:y:2003:i:3:p:259-279
    DOI: 10.1177/14651165030043001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Rabinowitz, George & Macdonald, Stuart Elaine, 1989. "A Directional Theory of Issue Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 93-121, March.
    4. MARK FRANKLIN & MICHAEL MARSH & LAUREN McLAREN, 1994. "Uncorking the Bottle: Popular Opposition to European Unification in the Wake of Maastricht," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 455-472, December.
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    3. Matthew Gabel & Kenneth Scheve, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of Elite Communications on Public Opinion Using Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2005-02, University of Kentucky, Institute for Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations.

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