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Do restrictive asylum and visa policies increase irregular migration into Europe?

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  • Mathias Czaika
  • Mogens Hobolth

Abstract

This article investigates the extent to which restrictive asylum and visa policies trigger an unintended behavioural response of potential and rejected asylum seekers. Based on our analysis of bilateral asylum and visa policies on migrant flows to 29 European states in the 2000s, we find evidence of a significant deflection into irregularity at work. Our estimates suggest that a 10% increase in asylum rejections raises the number of irregular migrants by on average 2% to 4%, and similarly, a 10% increase in short-stay visa rejections leads to a 4% to 7% increase in irregular border entries. We identify significant nuances in the impact of restrictive asylum and visa policies on the number of apprehensions ‘at the border’ versus ‘on territory’.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Czaika & Mogens Hobolth, 2016. "Do restrictive asylum and visa policies increase irregular migration into Europe?," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(3), pages 345-365, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:17:y:2016:i:3:p:345-365
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116516633299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ademmer, Esther & Akgüç, Mehtap & Barslund, Mikkel & Di Bartolomeo, Anna & Benček, David & Groll, Dominik & Hoxhaj, Rezart & Lanati, Mauro & Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya & Lücke, Matthias & Ludolph, Lars & R, 2017. "2017 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. Sharing responsibility for refugees and expanding legal immigration," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 182239.
    2. Mathias Czaika & Christopher R. Parsons, 2017. "The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 603-630, April.
    3. Magdalena M. Ulceluse & Martin Kahanec, 2017. "Self-employment effects of restrictive immigration policies: the case of transitional arrangements in the EU," Discussion Papers 47, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    4. Ulceluse, Magdalena & Kahanec, Martin, 2019. "The effectiveness of restrictive immigration policies: the case of transitional arrangements," GLO Discussion Paper Series 379, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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